I still contend that Uconn is still very well positioned and that further movement will happen much sooner than later. Only two things in my mind would kill UConns chances. 1. The Big 12 expanded with Cincy and Byu. 2. ESPN locked up the B1g. Neither has happened. So the more time I have to digest yesterday's news, the better I think it was for Uconn. I doubt the schools and networks left out of yesterday's announcement will roll over and play dead. Things are just starting, not ending! Pull up a chair and enjoy the ride. My guess now is ESPN ponies up more money to lock in the acc, gives nd a sweetheart deal to be a permanent member and adds uconn. Both ESPN and the acc need nyc more than ever. There is only one way to get it.
I agree with most of this but I think ESPN also has the goal of locking up Texas long-term while migrating the failed Longhorn Network to a more profitable network model, while not paying up to 7 B12 schools that bring little in terms of market or revenue. So I think ESPN will try to solve several problems at once by creating an ACC - ND - Texas (maybe Oklahoma+Kansas too) network. UConn could be a part of that. They may also have an opportunity to work with the Pac, whose network has not been as profitable as hoped, partly because they lack eastern distribution.
I am also suspicious of the numbers thrown out for the B1G-Fox deal. I suspect the headline numbers are a maximum rather than a guaranteed payout, and the B1G has to hit various metrics to get those numbers. I suspect this was a friendly Fox-B1G deal designed to generate an impression that B1G content is more valuable than it is and put pressure on ESPN, CBS, NBC, etc to offer bigger bids on the second half. Fox is a B1G partner via BTN and could easily help them out by structuring the Tier 1 deal to permit these terrific headlines, without changing its expected payout much.
I don't think ESPN rolls over for the B1G and I bet the money differential between conferences will be less than current buzz anticipates.
And I think we're seeing a Fox vs ESPN competition with the northeast, ND, and Texas as major dominoes yet to fall. UConn as the lone available northeast property that moves the needle is likely to get picked up in that competition.