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Fivethirtyeight's analysis of #1 vs. #16 matchup results. Besides 1998 Harvard v. Stanford upset- Zip.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...d-to-win-in-the-womens-tournament-ever-again/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...d-to-win-in-the-womens-tournament-ever-again/