First Committee Top 16

[Vowelguy]

Committee will release its first top-16 rankings tomorrow night. (Akin to the college football committee's rankings released during the season.) Subsequent rankings on 2/6 an 2/20.

Women's Basketball: 2017 top-16 seeds to be announced three times as part of Big Monday broadcasts

My guess (not how I would rank them):

1. UConn
2. Baylor
3. So Carolina
4. Miss St
5. Fla St
6. Maryland
7. Washington
8. Notre Dame
9. Oregon St
10. Louisville
11. Stanford
12. Texas
13. UCLA
14. Duke
15. Ohio St
16. Kansas St

 

[Plebe]

Committee will release its first top-16 rankings tomorrow night. (Akin to the college football committee's rankings released during the season.) Subsequent rankings on 2/6 an 2/20.

Women's Basketball: 2017 top-16 seeds to be announced three times as part of Big Monday broadcasts

My guess (not how I would rank them):

1. UConn
2. Baylor
3. So Carolina
4. Miss St
5. Fla St
6. Maryland
7. Washington
8. Notre Dame
9. Oregon St
10. Louisville
11. Stanford
12. Texas
13. UCLA
14. Duke
15. Ohio St
16. Kansas St

I'm finding it hard to find anything to criticize in your choices here. The placement of Mississippi State and Maryland will be something to watch, in terms of how the committee weighs their relatively light schedules. Kansas State at #16 would turn some heads, but there's little to differentiate any number of teams for those final couple spots in the top 16.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I'm finding it hard to find anything to criticize in your choices here. The placement of Mississippi State and Maryland will be something to watch, in terms of how the committee weighs their relatively light schedules. Kansas State at #16 would turn some heads, but there's little to differentiate any number of teams for those final couple spots in the top 16.

Yep, I'm a bit surprised by the K-State ranking as the final 4 seed. Over NC State? Others? Interesting pick.

 

[Phil]

I wouldn't pick either. AZ State better than each of them.

 

[easttexastrash]

I think Winthrop will end up as the final 4 seed. They are much better than that 100+ point loss to Baylor would indicate.

 

[Vowelguy]

Kanss st is ranked 22 in last ap poll, but 14 17 18 19 all lost last week.

Also 17 sagarin, 20 Massey, 17 RPI.

 

[UcMiami]

Those last couple of spots are going to change pretty much with every game played and likely will come down to everyone's favorite stats - SOS and RPI. Those teams are going to have a handful of losses, and quality wins, bad losses, and ultimately performance in conference tournaments will maybe help but the strength/weakness of the conference is going to be an issue - B12 and Big10 teams will suffer compared to the other three P5.

 

[CocoHusky]

A few months ago many of us were complaining about Maryland's cupcake schedule, well looks like those chicken have come home to roost.
" The Terps will contend for a No. 1 seed all season, but a softer nonconference schedule than the other teams in the mix and a down year in the Big Ten hurts their chances."
Which teams are worthy of a top-16 seed?.

 

[Vowelguy]

Those last couple of spots are going to change pretty much with every game played and likely will come down to everyone's favorite stats - SOS and RPI. Those teams are going to have a handful of losses, and quality wins, bad losses, and ultimately performance in conference tournaments will maybe help but the strength/weakness of the conference is going to be an issue - B12 and Big10 teams will suffer compared to the other three P5.

The big 12 is rated 2nd strongest conference, after PAC, by both sagarin and Massey.

 

[Phil]

AP updated.

As expected, Miami down and out of top 16. AZ State moves into top 16

 

[Plebe]

Charlie Creme has the following top 16 (vowelguy's prediction in parentheses):

1. UConn (1)
2. Baylor (2)
3. South Carolina (3)
4. Mississippi State (4)
5. Maryland (6)
6. Florida State (5)
7. Washington (7)
8. Notre Dame (8)
9. Oregon State (9)
10. Stanford (11)
11. Louisville (10)
12. Texas (12)
13. UCLA (13)
14. Arizona State (-)
15. Duke (14)
16. Kentucky (-)

About the Kentucky pick for #16, Charlie said: "This spot was the most difficult decision on the board. Oklahoma, NC State, Ohio State and DePaul were all also in the mix." Interesting that he doesn't even include Kansas State among these contenders.

 

[Nuyoika]

I'm shocked I really thought AZ St would be out of the Top 25 by February. Looks like they are hanging around.

 

[Vowelguy]

My bad, I completely missed that K St lost over the weekend.

Given that I would agree with Ariz St as #16.

 

[UcMiami]

The big 12 is rated 2nd strongest conference, after PAC, by both sagarin and Massey.

But outside of TX and Baylor I just don't think they have any teams that compete for top 16 - I just think none of the others are able to upset those two, which would be the only way they could get back in the conversation - KState, Oklahoma, and WV don't have the horses and keep dropping games.

 

[wallman]

This year especially, conference tournaments will be very interesting.

 

[Plebe]

But outside of TX and Baylor I just don't think they have any teams that compete for top 16 - I just think none of the others are able to upset those two, which would be the only way they could get back in the conversation - KState, Oklahoma, and WV don't have the horses and keep dropping games.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of those teams were able to upset Texas. Oklahoma played a very competitive (until the last few minutes) game in Austin, and they'll get Texas in Norman next month.

But I agree that if those three teams just keep beating each other, any of their chances of hosting are small. A lot depends, of course, on how the other teams on the "hosting bubble" fare in the rest of their season. I could see Ohio State laying a couple of bad eggs in the Big Ten season, for example.

 

[easttexastrash]

I wouldn't be surprised if one of those teams were able to upset Texas. Oklahoma played a very competitive (until the last few minutes) game in Austin, and they'll get Texas in Norman next month.

But I agree that if those three teams just keep beating each other, any of their chances of hosting are small. A lot depends, of course, on how the other teams on the "hosting bubble" fare in the rest of their season. I could see Ohio State laying a couple of bad eggs in the Big Ten season, for example.

I may be wrong, but I don't see OU beating Texas. KSU's loss to ISU probably killed their seeding.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I think there is major separation between the top twelve teams in that list and everyone else. The top three seeds are very solid. From there on out, looks to me like a lot to coin tosses.

Indeed, Connecticut should be concerned with only the two seeds. Those are the only ones who should present serious challenges.

 

[Plebe]

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Guess Creme was right about Kentucky. Poor Maryland!! We talked about their nonconference at length in the early season.

 

[Plebe]

Maryland at #9 is a bit of a shocker. But it was very similar last year. Maryland had only lost to UConn, and most people thought they were at least the 5th-best team in the country, but the committee put them at #9 or thereabouts in the first reveal. The committee has been very consistent in placing a heavy emphasis on strength of schedule.

I'm also surprised that Duke is as high as #11, and ahead of Louisville. But not shocking, I suppose, when you consider that Duke's win over SC is far better than anything Louisville has done so far.

 

[Phil]

Looks like they are sending a message about SOS - KY higher than they should be and MD lower, but message sent. Message received? We''ll have to wait until next year to see.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Rebecca saying Maryland's SOS at 95 weighs on them and will with the NCAA Committee in the final reveal too.

 

[triaddukefan]

Maryland at #9 is a bit of a shocker. But it was very similar last year. Maryland had only lost to UConn, and most people thought they were at least the 5th-best team in the country, but the committee put them at #9 or thereabouts in the first reveal. The committee has been very consistent in placing a heavy emphasis on strength of schedule.

I'm also surprised that Duke is as high as #11, and ahead of Louisville. But not shocking, I suppose, when you consider that Duke's win over SC is far better than anything Louisville has done so far.

And the fact that Duke beat Louisville head to head. It still surprises me that they are that far ahead of us in the polls. Im not surprised that Duke is higher than UCLA.

 

[Vowelguy]

My arm is tired from patting myself on the back about Maryland.
I will also note that in the bracketology threads there were many who claimed that MD was a lock for a #1.