Elite 8 Matchups and Predictions

[SCGamecock]

How’s this scenario:

UConn beats USC and Iowa beats LSU and then meet in the final four. Everyone assumes, probably not wrongly, that SC will win the NC game against either opponent.

But the Iowa-UConn will have the better narrative, the better matchup of superstars. It’s the game the media will love.

I suspect the NC game, where SC thumps either Iowa or UConn, could feel like an afterthought and that the real event was the prior game. SC will be national champions, but the Paige-Caitlin matchup is what will be remembered.

I’ll take it. I couldn’t possibly care less about headlines or TV ratings. I’m only concerned with winning it all.

 

[bballnut90]

How’s this scenario:

UConn beats USC and Iowa beats LSU and then meet in the final four. Everyone assumes, probably not wrongly, that SC will win the NC game against either opponent.

But the Iowa-UConn will have the better narrative, the better matchup of superstars. It’s the game the media will love.

I suspect the NC game, where SC thumps either Iowa or UConn, could feel like an afterthought and that the real event was the prior game. SC will be national champions, but the Paige-Caitlin matchup is what will be remembered.

I think the Paige-Caitlin narrative isn’t as big of a talking point anymore outside of UCONN fans bringing them up. Clark-Juju would be a huge matchup too due to Juju being on track to beat Caitlin’s scoring record. I think the NCAA ultimately dropped the ball by putting LSU and Iowa in the same regional since that storyline trumps any potential F4 matchup.

Also, I think SC is very beatable if you catch them on an off shooting night. They aren’t playing their best basketball right now and I could see any team left beating them, though I’d still predict SC to win at this point.

 

[bkart1978]

While I think Paige can outplay Ju Ju in almost every area, I think the problem is that Ju Ju consistently outdoes Paige when it comes to drawing fouls. Paige only takes good shots, but sometimes getting to the line is about taking a couple bad shots and getting bailed out with a foul. And, unfortunately, fouls are what I think could - if anything - doom the five-player UConn rotation in this one. I’m just hoping it’s close because that means we have a chance! No shame either way - Elite 8 with that lineup on the bench is a great accomplishment.

 

[Bone Dog]

While I think Paige can outplay Ju Ju in almost every area, I think the problem is that Ju Ju consistently outdoes Paige when it comes to drawing fouls. Paige only takes good shots, but sometimes getting to the line is about taking a couple bad shots and getting bailed out with a foul.

I agree with your overall point. But it’s worth commenting on this one detail. Geno has mentioned this a few times, that for whatever reasons the refs don’t seem to see the fouls Paige endures. Juju, by contrast, appears to be getting the same treatment Caitlyn does, and even the slightest touch on a drive draws a whistle.

So, yes, the fouls Juju draws could be a problem. Job one for Nika is to avoid fouling out, and I think this means not trying to stop Juju’s drives to the rim. She should focus on limiting her passing and leave it at that. Even if Juju scores 40, it’s more important that Nika be on the floor in the closing minutes.

 

[jaydee602]

Vegas sets odds so that half of the bettors bet on each team. If a lot of people are betting on UConn, the odds will keep moving in their favor to encourage others to bet on the opponent. That’s why odds move.

How Do Bookmakers Generate Sports Odds?

Ever been curious how the spread is determined, or how the moneyline comes into being? Read on to learn more about how odds and lines are made!

www.sportsbettingdime.com

Exactly, Nan. The bettors affect the odds, not the bookmakers.
As a hopeless gambler who has been wagering on UCONN games for years, I can attest that bettors have always placed wagers on UCONN. In their prime, the Huskies always covered the spread. But that usually inflates the point spread.

 

[hoophuskee]

I think the Paige-Caitlin narrative isn’t as big of a talking point anymore outside of UCONN fans bringing them up. Clark-Juju would be a huge matchup too due to Juju being on track to beat Caitlin’s scoring record.

Not so sure about that. You have two NPOY winners going head-to-head. Looking at that historcially, how often has that happened? escpecailly if Paige "ouduels" Juju. You have the NPOY comeback player vs the cuurent NPOY. You have Dawn talking up Paige -- there will be interesting National debates imo on ESPN comparing one as more of a pure scorer vs one that can score but prefers to be a passer.

That type of difference/debate reaches into the men's game as well- as result further interest could be drawn.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

I think the NCAA ultimately dropped the ball by putting LSU and Iowa in the same regional since that storyline trumps any potential F4 matchup.

Also, I think SC is very beatable if you catch them on an off shooting night. They aren’t playing their best basketball right now and I could see any team left beating them, though I’d still predict SC to win at this point.

I realize the matchups and seedings are based on regular season and conference tournament performance but there is no way LSU and Iowa should have been in the same region and have this game occur anytime before the FF. For all the turmoil LSU had this year I had no doubts they would make it the E8 and figured Iowa would as well.

SC has shown vulnerability the last two games and they could easily win of course but I'm less sold on them now.

 

[Geew1992]

I think the Paige-Caitlin narrative isn’t as big of a talking point anymore outside of UCONN fans bringing them up. Clark-Juju would be a huge matchup too due to Juju being on track to beat Caitlin’s scoring record. I think the NCAA ultimately dropped the ball by putting LSU and Iowa in the same regional since that storyline trumps any potential F4 matchup.

Also, I think SC is very beatable if you catch them on an off shooting night. They aren’t playing their best basketball right now and I could see any team left beating them, though I’d still predict SC to win at this point.

Nah.... All twitter talks about is who's better, Paige or Caitlin. Caitlin was screwed freshman year. There would be no Paige without Caitlin. No disrespect to JuJu, but she isn't even mentioned in the same sentence right now as Clark. They're busy comparing her to Maya.

 

[bballnut90]

Not so sure about that. You have two NPOY winners going head-to-head. Looking at that historcially, how often has that happened? escpecailly if Paige "ouduels" Juju. You have the NPOY comeback player vs the cuurent NPOY. You have Dawn talking up Paige -- there will be interesting National debates imo on ESPN comparing one as more of a pure scorer vs one that can score but prefers to be a passer.

That type of difference/debate reaches into the men's game as well- as result further interest could be drawn.

Nah.... All twitter talks about is who's better, Paige or Caitlin. Caitlin was screwed freshman year. There would be no Paige without Caitlin. No disrespect to JuJu, but she isn't even mentioned in the same sentence right now as Clark. They're busy comparing her to Maya.

I've only seen the Caitlin-Paige discussion consistently come from UCONN fans since 2021, I haven't seen articles or analysts comparing them or much on social media outside of UCONN fans. If they meet in the Final Four I think they'll be compared and discussed, especially if Bueckers outplays Clark, but it will likely be short lived since Caitlin is going pro while Bueckers is coming back for a 5th year.

 

[bleeckerhusky]

Exactly, Nan. The bettors affect the odds, not the bookmakers.
As a hopeless gambler who has been wagering on UCONN games for years, I can attest that bettors have always placed wagers on UCONN. In their prime, the Huskies always covered the spread. But that usually inflates the point spread.

For what it's worth, Massey has UConn as 6.5 point favorites with a 68% chance of winning and ESPN has UConn as 3.5 point favorites with a 74.9% chance of winning.

 

[Kaizen]

The expert predicts,

 

[Cuango]

I realize they are favored to win, they’re undefeated etc but does no one remember last year? They were all this last year as well and look what happened! Yes, it’s unlikely but…..it was unlikely last year as well! They’ve had at least four games now where they could easily have lost. First, they have to beat NC State, who is looking pretty good. First they have to do that, Only then can they turn their attention to “thumping” either Iowa or us! You’ve heard the saying, “ a funny thing happened on the way to the forum?” Well, SC isn’t there yet! Sure, they probably win but…. Maybe not! How about we wait til they actually do it before we crown them champions?

 

[Bone Dog]

If they meet in the Final Four I think they'll be compared and discussed, especially if Bueckers outplays Clark, but it will likely be short lived since Caitlin is going pro while Bueckers is coming back for a 5th year.

Yes, short lived in the sense that Caitlin will leave the limelight by entering the W, while Paige will remain center stage at UConn. Like it or not, these days the best D1 college teams are a bigger stage than the W.

 

[GoCardinal]

I strongly disagree that Paige/Caitlin isn’t a major talking point. I’ve seen ESPN shows and social media alike recently say Paige would be where Caitlin is currently if it weren’t for injuries. I could see that potential narrative influencing grander conversations to be had if they met in the Final 4. I personally would much rather see Iowa and South Carolina in the NC game over another game of LSU/SC. I actually would love to see UConn or USC playing for the title considering the tremendous stories both teams have. Should be interesting.

 

[hoophuskee]

I've only seen the Caitlin-Paige discussion consistently come from UCONN fans since 2021, I haven't seen articles or analysts comparing them or much on social media outside of UCONN fans. If they meet in the Final Four I think they'll be compared and discussed, especially if Bueckers outplays Clark, but it will likely be short lived since Caitlin is going pro while Bueckers is coming back for a 5th year.

So you have seen no discussion other than UCONN fans with Paige vs Cailtin but yet you have seen a lot of Cailtin vs Juju? You had said Caitlin vs Juju will be huge so you have seen a lot of comparisons between them?

Note my initial reply to you - I was not arguing - just say "Not so sure about that." Because I listen to sports a lot on TV - and I haven't heard much talk at all of Catlin vs Juju (or Paige) other than ofc UCONN fans with Paige. But who out there is making you say Juju is huge while Paige much less?

And if UCONN beats USC - then you can definitely see that Paige may have outplayed Juju. So, if Juju right now is so huge and then a former POY (Paige) outplays her-- you don't think the media will go that much crazy and overall fans of a matchup between the 2?

You know if you get this Paige vs Caitlin in FF - suppose by some miracle UCONN were to win while Paige outplayed Clark. You think the media is going to miss out on hyping the game before it happens? In order to generate more enthusiasm, wouldn't they be pushing more pro-Paige "experts" (by that I mean right now most of teh media woudl have Caitlin - so I'm suggesting media will look to draw more enthusiasm)- maybe such as people that think like Dawn that may think Paige is better or right there with her?

Hey- I don't know what the West Coast thinks of Paige as an example. So, I am not arguing.

 

[bballnut90]

So you have seen no discussion other than UCONN fans with Paige vs Cailtin but yet you have seen a lot of Cailtin vs Juju? You had said Caitlin vs Juju will be huge so you have seen a lot of comparisons between them?

Note my initial reply to you - I was not arguing - just say "Not so sure about that." Because I listen to sports a lot on TV - and I haven't heard much talk at all of Catlin vs Juju (or Paige) other than ofc UCONN fans with Paige. But who out there is making you say Juju is huge while Paige much less?

And if UCONN beats USC - then you can definitely see that Paige may have outplayed Juju. So, if Juju right now is so huge and then a former POY (Paige) outplays her-- you don't think the media will go that much crazy and overall fans of a matchup between the 2?

You know if you get this Paige vs Caitlin in FF - suppose by some miracle UCONN were to win while Paige outplayed Clark. You think the media is going to miss out on hyping the game before it happens? In order to generate more enthusiasm, wouldn't they be pushing more pro-Paige "experts" (by that I mean right now most of teh media woudl have Caitlin - so I'm suggesting media will look to draw more enthusiasm)- maybe such as people that think like Dawn that may think Paige is better or right there with her?

Hey- I don't know what the West Coast thinks of Paige as an example. So, I am not arguing.

"Huge" was an exaggeration by me, but Juju has been brought up frequently due to her scoring prowess as a freshman and the fact that she's already ahead of pace from where Clark was at as a freshman. I haven't seen much chatter about Clark/Bueckers being compared to each other this year besides here on the BY or from Connecticut fans on Twitter. If they meet in the Final Four, I don't see that as the focal point of the story line. Maybe I'll be wrong, and I'll happily own up to if that's the case.

 

[hoophuskee]

"Huge" was an exaggeration by me, but Juju has been brought up frequently due to her scoring prowess as a freshman and the fact that she's already ahead of pace from where Clark was at as a freshman. I haven't seen much chatter about Clark/Bueckers being compared to each other this year besides here on the BY or from Connecticut fans on Twitter. If they meet in the Final Four, I don't see that as the focal point of the story line. Maybe I'll be wrong, and I'll happily own up to if that's the case.

WHo has Juju been brought up by? In the Northeast as I said I listen to a lot of sports -- and Caitlin n is brought up a lot but not Juju. So who has been talking so much about Juju vs Paige?

 

[hoophuskee]

In regard to predictions if anyone interested - 6 people on ESPN today - 4 taking USC and 2 taking UCONN. - On first Take Stephen A Smith and Shannon Sharpe took USC ,as did Sarah Spain and Monica McNutt. While Around the Horn Frank Iosola and Tim Crenshaw took UCONN.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I think the Paige-Caitlin narrative isn’t as big of a talking point anymore outside of UCONN fans bringing them up. Clark-Juju would be a huge matchup too due to Juju being on track to beat Caitlin’s scoring record. I think the NCAA ultimately dropped the ball by putting LSU and Iowa in the same regional since that storyline trumps any potential F4 matchup.

Also, I think SC is very beatable if you catch them on an off shooting night. They aren’t playing their best basketball right now and I could see any team left beating them, though I’d still predict SC to win at this point.

Well based on the coverage since the final buzzer in the USC/UConn game, this turned out to be a very very wrong take.