Dodd: Oklahoma has a chance to increase its prestige, value

[junglehusky]

Article link

 

[junglehusky]

Dammit, got the thread title wrong. Could a mod edit "Oklahoma" to "Big 12"... ?

 

[Adios]

It's amazing what is done and how much is written over what amounts to a mansion in Fairfield County, along the Gold Coast.

 

[1husky]

How does any organization pass on $1B in additional revenue over the next 8 years? I've already seen articles praising the ACC for joining the $400M+ club along with 3 other P5 leagues. The Big12 can't pass up the money. Does anyone know how West Virginia was compensated when they joined the league? Obviously they did not get a full share at first. I'm wondering what a reasonable share would be for UConn. I would think more than $10M.

 

[junglehusky]

How does any organization pass on $1B in additional revenue over the next 8 years? I've already seen articles praising the ACC for joining the $400M+ club along with 3 other P5 leagues. The Big12 can't pass up the money. Does anyone know how West Virginia was compensated when they joined the league? Obviously they did not get a full share at first. I'm wondering what a reasonable share would be for UConn. I would think more than $10M.

As Dodd said in his article, sources may not be happy about playing Oklahoma / Texas only every other year. They won't look at as 1 billion for the conference, they'll ask what it does for their school's revenue.

The schedule: One observer brought up what a conference might look like for the average current Big 12 school post-expansion.


Sept. 24 -- Cincinnati
Oct. 1 -- Memphis
Oct. 8 -- Iowa State
Oct. 15 -- West Virginia
Oct. 22 -- Kansas
Oct. 29 -- Oklahoma
Nov. 5 -- Central Florida
Nov. 12 -- Texas Tech

That would make for a fairly putrid season ticket package. With expansion, goodbye round-robin. Goodbye possibly playing Oklahoma or Texas at home each year. Goodbye schedule strength?

So this would be a B12N maybe B12E schedule. You can substitute UConn for say Memphis ... and even if you swap in TCU or Baylor (if they're still a good team) it could still be unappealing to B12 ticket buyers.

This is where Boren's political and persuasive skills will have to come in, actually having to convince the other presidents that academics and a conference network should overrule football. And obviously, the big thing to negotiate will be the balance between distributing any additional money from the per-school kicker to the existing schools. So how much of a haircut UConn / Cincy / whoever get.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

I would put the odds of B12 expansion at less than 10%.

If Texas is against it, it isn't going to happen. It is not in Texas' best interest to expand and lock into a longer GOR with the B12. They know their future is in either the B1G or PAC, but they want to ride the LHN gravy train as long as possible before being forced to move. They will use their power and influence in the state of Texas to ensure that the B12 doesn't have enough votes to expand (forcing a no vote from the many fellow TX schools).

If the less than 10% chance of B12 expansion happens, look for UConn to receive a significantly reduced share for an extended period of time (but obviously much more than the current AAC payout). Also, I would expect to see UConn B12 "home games" in NYC or Boston--there is no way that Texas is ever playing at The Rent unless seating is well over 60k--and even then we may be forced to play in NYC/Boston.

 

[BlueMAB]

On the list of reasons Texas doesn't want to expand, the size of the stadium for a conference away game they'd play once every 3-4 years is about #184.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

On the list of reasons Texas doesn't want to expand, the size of the stadium for a conference away game they'd play once every 3-4 years is about #184.

Not disagreeing with you. But all I am saying is that there is very little chance that the B12 expands--as Texas has no interest in it. And in the very small chance that they do expand and take UConn, we should expect to see regular B12 "home games" in NYC and/or Boston.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Nothing says prestigious and valuable like the University of Memphis. Seriously done with those guys. Couple good years with a transcendent QB and coach who are both now gone and they act like they're the Green Bay Packers.

 

[BlueMAB]

Not disagreeing with you. But all I am saying is that there is very little chance that the B12 expands--as Texas has no interest in it. And in the very small chance that they do expand and take UConn, we should expect to see regular B12 "home games" in NYC and/or Boston.

That won't happen either. They can't make us move our home game. The only way we'd move it, is if we kept the same revenues (gate/concessions, etc) as a home game, and why would UT agree to that?

Did FSU require BC to play their home games at Gillette? Of course not. (FYI: BCU's stadium seats 44,500)

I'm not saying the B12 will expand, but the rest of the league should realize that placating UT will not improve their stability in any way, and it appears it isn't likely to improve their financial standing either.

 

[sportsart]

Not disagreeing with you. But all I am saying is that there is very little chance that the B12 expands--as Texas has no interest in it. And in the very small chance that they do expand and take UConn, we should expect to see regular B12 "home games" in NYC and/or Boston.

Texas only gets 1 vote. If 8 teams want to expand, they expand.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I would put the odds of B12 expansion at less than 10%.

If Texas is against it, it isn't going to happen. It is not in Texas' best interest to expand and lock into a longer GOR with the B12. They know their future is in either the B1G or PAC, but they want to ride the LHN gravy train as long as possible before being forced to move. They will use their power and influence in the state of Texas to ensure that the B12 doesn't have enough votes to expand (forcing a no vote from the many fellow TX schools).

If the less than 10% chance of B12 expansion happens, look for UConn to receive a significantly reduced share for an extended period of time (but obviously much more than the current AAC payout). Also, I would expect to see UConn B12 "home games" in NYC or Boston--there is no way that Texas is ever playing at The Rent unless seating is well over 60k--and even then we may be forced to play in NYC/Boston.

Texas would come here twice in a decade.

 

[jostar1]

If they have to expand with four schools to make the money work, I don't see it happening. The quality schools just aren't there. If they can expand with two, it might happen. Although Boren's comments about hand held devices and cord-cutting have me worried.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Texas only gets 1 vote.

By the rules, they get one vote. But they will have no problem using their political power and influence in TX, as well as good old fashioned threats and strong-arming to get two other Texas schools to vote with them.

By the by-laws, Texas can be outvoted 9-1 and be forced to expand. But that is not happening in reality. If Texas doesn't want to expand, it is not happening.

 

[sportsart]

By the rules, they get one vote. But they will have no problem using their political power and influence in TX, as well as good old fashioned threats and strong-arming to get two other Texas schools to vote with them.

By the by-laws, Texas can be outvoted 9-1 and be forced to expand. But that is not happening in reality. If Texas doesn't want to expand, it is not happening.

I get what you are saying but there have been reports that one of Texas's "butt buddies" has been leaning towards expansion. They are starting to get it, in terms of, if they don't expand they are screwed at the end of the GoR when Texas leaves.

We shall see.

 

[The Viking]

Why would any school not named Texas and Oklahoma not act in their own interest at this point?

Does TCU or Kansas State really think Texas gives a rats ass about them if they really want to move when this GOR is up? If I'm Kansas State I'm like hell yeah, lets add 4 teams and give me an extra 60 mil over the next 7-8 years. At this point I think it's everyone fend for themselves.

Maybe I'm missing something..

 

[Vowelguy]

Maybe I'm missing something..

I know how you feel.

A guy on Twitter (with a Tx Longhorn avatar) argued that expansion did nothing to benefit the non-TX/OU schools and they should oppose. Furthermore, that the B12 was dead in <10 yrs with TX/OU moving on, and then ISU/Kan/KSt would go to the B10, WV to the AAC, and the rest to the C-USA. Leaving aside the hilarity of ISU/KSU going to B10, I responded with a simple question: if most schools are headed for the C-USA, how exactly could they do worse by expanding now? (I never got a response.)

 

[1husky]

I would put the odds of B12 expansion at less than 10%.

If Texas is against it, it isn't going to happen. It is not in Texas' best interest to expand and lock into a longer GOR with the B12. They know their future is in either the B1G or PAC, but they want to ride the LHN gravy train as long as possible before being forced to move. They will use their power and influence in the state of Texas to ensure that the B12 doesn't have enough votes to expand (forcing a no vote from the many fellow TX schools).

If the less than 10% chance of B12 expansion happens, look for UConn to receive a significantly reduced share for an extended period of time (but obviously much more than the current AAC payout). Also, I would expect to see UConn B12 "home games" in NYC or Boston--there is no way that Texas is ever playing at The Rent unless seating is well over 60k--and even then we may be forced to play in NYC/Boston.

If the B12 can get an additional $1B just by adding 4 teams and a champ game for 8 years they will do it. I would at least up the probability to >60%. Don't forget about how this will affect salaries and bonuses for administrators. In 8 years they can blow the whole thing up if they want. Texas is posturing right now to demonstrate who runs the conference. But no one is turning down $1B without a serious fight.

 

[Ldandy]

Has anyone done the math on how much more the current members stand to make per year with the addition of 4 teams? Assuming the 4 newcomers take a greatly diminished share.

 

[The Viking]

Dodd broke it down in his article. Lets say they add 4 teams and ESPN/Fox has to fork over a 100 million a year. That 100 mil goes to the conference first, not to the teams.

The conference then pays the 4 new schools their haircut amount (he started with 10 mil), leaving 60 mil for the remaining 10 teams to divvy up - for a bump of 6 million per year per team.

Not a bad bump.

 

[TRest]

Dodd broke it down in his article. Lets say they add 4 teams and ESPN/Fox has to fork over a 100 million a year. That 100 mil goes to the conference first, not to the teams.

The conference then pays the 4 new schools their haircut amount (he started with 10 mil), leaving 60 mil for the remaining 10 teams to divvy up - for a bump of 6 million per year per team.

Not a bad bump.

Considering that WVU had to borrow the BE exit fee money from the B12 when it joined, this looks like a pretty sweet deal for the established members. And going to Vowelguy's point, if you are the little 8 in the conference, why not invite the best of the AAC now rather than having to join the entire clusterfack in the future?

 

[CL82]

If the B12 can get an additional $1B just by adding 4 teams and a champ game for 8 years they will do it. I would at least up the probability to >60%. Don't forget about how this will affect salaries and bonuses for administrators. In 8 years they can blow the whole thing up if they want. Texas is posturing right now to demonstrate who runs the conference. But no one is turning down $1B without a serious fight.

Even without the newbs taking a reduced share, which they most assuredly will, expansion benefits the Big 12. Right now the narrative is every other conference has crossed the $400 million Rubicon. With the addition of new teams, the Big 12 joins that club.

 

[Pudge]

I would put the odds of B12 expansion at less than 10%.

.

I buy this logic.

HOWEVER ... doing nothing screws this conference for the next decade. And 9 Universities know that. Intimately. And fully 8 of them have little other choice. It is about the Network. And as a certain 11 shows us ... that is a problem in todays cord cutting scheme. HOWEVER ... doing nothing gets them further behind. Thamel said the ACC was close: I will believe it when that execution is announced. Today is the day that the B12 needs to pull up their big boy pants and decide who they are going to be. And ... let's admit: for the foreseeable future the SEC and B1G is going to be at least $25 m per University better than the other 3. Lucky sperm Rutgers.

 

[1husky]

I buy this logic.

HOWEVER ... doing nothing screws this conference for the next decade. And 9 Universities know that. Intimately. And fully 8 of them have little other choice. It is about the Network. And as a certain 11 shows us ... that is a problem in todays cord cutting scheme. HOWEVER ... doing nothing gets them further behind. Thamel said the ACC was close: I will believe it when that execution is announced. Today is the day that the B12 needs to pull up their big boy pants and decide who they are going to be. And ... let's admit: for the foreseeable future the SEC and B1G is going to be at least $25 m per University better than the other 3. Lucky sperm Rutgers.

According to Dodd, they get $1B without even adding a network.