Crazy Idea : Hail Mary attempt to spur Conference Realignment action | The Boneyard

Crazy Idea : Hail Mary attempt to spur Conference Realignment action

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UConnSportsGuy

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As the B12 is beginning to show signs of cooling on the idea of expansion (as many expected), the bigger G5 schools should make a move to force their hand. Because if conference realignment is delayed again, the gap between the P5 and G5 will grow exponentially by the time realignment opens back up in 10 years to a point that we may not be able to compete with even the Northwestern's, Purdue's, and Wake Forests of the world. It may be time to take an aggressive step to save the long term viability of some of the G5 athletic departments and think outside the box.

What if rumors began to emerge that, as a result of the B12 discussions, many of the bigger G5 teams have begun having exploratory talks of creating a new football only conference. If all of the most powerful programs in the G5 banded together, it could potentially create a significant problem for the P5. A rumored 10 team conference c0nsisting of an East and West division could look something like this:

East
1. UConn
2. Cincinnati
3. Navy
4. Temple
5. UCF

West
1. BYU
2. Houston
3. Colorado St
4. Boise St
5. Fresno St

Part of the advantage the "P5" has is that it has created such a huge gap between even the worst P5 conference and the best G5 conference in terms of on-field performance. But if you created a conference such as the one above, there are many years that this new conference would be one of the best 5 conferences and "bust" the P5 frame of reference that they have created. And with the programs and markets (NY, Boston, OH, Baltimore, Philly, FL, Denver, TX, CA, the Mormons) of the above conference, the potential TV money would far surpass the money that any of the programs are currently getting. This new conference would present a potential threat to the monopoly that the P5 have worked so hard to create (and in reality, the threat is to the ACC and the B12, the two lowest on the totem poll of the P5--as the B1G, SEC, and P12 are insulated from threat in reality).

If "rumors" began to surface of this coming to fruition, my guess is that the TV powers and the P5 powers would find a little more incentive to kill the potential threat of the above conference and would help grease the wheels for current expansion. For the TV powers, the potential cost of a 2-4 team B12 expansion doesn't look so bad to if the above may be about to happen (losing their current low-ball deals for the best G5 schools and having to pay for the new conference rights on the open market). And obviously the B12 (and potentially ACC) would like to protect the monopoly they have going and not have to potentially split part of the P5 pie with anyone else.

I know it is a completely crazy idea. But if the conference expansion bubble is really beginning to lose air and might pop, then it may be a last minute hail-mary idea. And hell, even if it didn't work--being in the above conference for football and the Big East in all other sports is not only better in the short term versus staying in the AAC, it also would be a better long term play to keep us relevant and viable until the next conference realignment in 10 years.

My guess is that the above idea would scare some into pushing for action in the B12 and ESPN/FOX. Anyone want to contact Blauds and "tip him off" to the discussions?!;)
 
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SubbaBub

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The AAC already has a huge gap on the rest of the G5. Only Boise is really a threat to the regular threat AAC champion and will see if they recover from losing Petersen. Yet the G5 still would have an almost zero chance at the playoff and the major bowl games would pick anyone else but the G5 AQ.
 
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Not a bad idea, though it wouldn't be feasible as an all-sports conference due to travel and would necessitate that we end up in the Big East in all other sports. But this football conference plus this Big East would be an improvement over where we are now. I suspect if nothing happens or if the Big 12 takes 0-2 of the BYU/UH/UConn/UC group, the remaining teams will not stay where they are and wait for the AAC to backfill with UMass and Southern Miss.
 

UConnSportsGuy

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Not a bad idea, though it wouldn't be feasible as an all-sports conference.

Exactly why this would be a football only conference (just like the Hockey East is a hockey only conference). Potentially UConn & Cincy could go to the Big East for all others. Navy is football only in the AAC anyway, so it is no real change for them. UCF....their non-football sports are irrelevant anyway, so they could find a landing spot. BYU is independent for football, so no change for them. And I think the increase in money and prestige of the conference, would offset the pain of finding another conference for all other sports for the other teams.

I know it is crazy...but I don't think we can afford to keep the status quo in the AAC if the B12 doesn't expand.
 
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Exactly why this would be a football only conference (just like the Hockey East is a hockey only conference). Potentially UConn & Cincy could go to the Big East for all others. Navy is football only in the AAC anyway, so it is no real change for them. UCF....their non-football sports are irrelevant anyway, so they could find a landing spot. BYU is independent for football, so no change for them. And I think the increase in money and prestige of the conference, would offset the pain of finding another conference for all other sports for the other teams.

I know it is crazy...but I don't think we can afford to keep the status quo in the AAC if the B12 doesn't expand.
I agree, and Big East basketball with its current lineup plus UConn and Cincinnati would be significantly stronger, an easy 5-6 bid conference per year and would surely garner a higher TV deal.
 

UConnSportsGuy

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I got news for ya, if G5 programs got together and made a 10 member football-only conference, UConn probably misses the cut.

Huh? How do you figure? If you are trying to put together the best programs to build a conference to compete with the P5 (in terms of national appeal, funding, branding, markets, demographics, etc), UConn in one of the first (if not first) on the list.
 
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I got news for ya, if G5 programs got together and made a 10 member football-only conference, UConn probably misses the cut.


You have to remember that in order to get money you need actual fans. UConn has more fans than any other G5. Boise apparently has a bunch of fans around the country but they don't have the fanbase UConn has as a major state U and men's and women's basketball blue blood.

I'd say an all sports conference of BYU, SDSU, Boise St, Colorado St, Air Force and Nevada added to UConn, Cincy, Temple, USF, Navy and Houston would do pretty well. Maybe throw in UCF and ECU/SMU/UNLV if it helps the numbers. The key is to take the best schools for tv and absolutely no filler.

The AAC took too many schools and my guess is that politics and old friendships had something to do with it. I wouldn't take ECU, SMU, Tulane and Tulsa You have to draw the line somewhere and those schools are small market. Of the group, ECU football is good, but I hate their basketball and academics. SMU, Tulsa and Tulane are great schools, but they are too small. Eventually, someone will attempt to spearhead something like this, it just takes time to evolve.
 

Dooley

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If both BYU and UConn are shut out, these two should be playing every year. UConn needs to align itself with the upper half of the G5 who are closest in AD budget to us. There is no benefit of maintaining a relationship with schools like Tulsa.
 

shizzle787

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I've thought of this as well, but it wouldn't work because the NCAA wouldn't allow football-only conferences.
 
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Force their hand at what? There is zero competition between the P5 and the G5. Want to band together with the best of the rest? Okay but we're still the "rest."
They've created a system of join em or be irrelevant and unfortunately it's invite only.
 
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Football, and potentially men's basketball, will break away from the NCAA/conference structure all together in probably a decade or so.
 
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I don't think it is crazy at all. If UCONN is left out again, we need to seriously think about how to maximize media dollars for the next deal. The best way to do this is to form a nationwide football-only conference that will spread across all time zones filled with teams that have fan interest. I would do the following:

  1. Discuss the concept with best of G5 schools available (BYU, Cincy, Navy etc.).
  2. Hire media consultants to help build the conference to maximize next media deal.
  3. Invite schools recommended by the media consultants.
  4. I would do either a 16 teams or 14 teams nationwide football only conference.
  5. Put rest of the sports in the BE.

Here is what I would do for a 16 teams conference:

East
1. UConn
2. Cincinnati
3. Navy
4. Temple
5. UCF
6. USF
7. ECU
8. Army

West
1. BYU
2. Houston
3. Colorado St
4. Boise St
5. Fresno St
6. SDSU
7. UNLV
8. Air Force

This could be a decent football conference. It would get all the academies in the same conference. It could get decent media dollars.
 
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You know, with all the realignment talk over the last few months, many of these schools have been bandied about quite a bit. Maybe any given one or two of them seem like questionable Big 12 adds in the eyes of many college sports fans, but if you put them in a football-only conference together and add the service academies, it does seem like a pretty interesting conference with these contenders slugging it out against each other. Maybe the semi-unintended consequence of all this Big 12 expansion talk is free publicity and promotion for these "near-miss" schools. Especially someone like UConn, who (despite the Big 12's insistence that geography isn't a decisive factor) seems to have only missed out because of location.

P.S. Memphis is gonna be pis_ed!
 
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As the B12 is beginning to show signs of cooling on the idea of expansion (as many expected), the bigger G5 schools should make a move to force their hand. Because if conference realignment is delayed again, the gap between the P5 and G5 will grow exponentially by the time realignment opens back up in 10 years to a point that we may not be able to compete with even the Northwestern's, Purdue's, and Wake Forests of the world. It may be time to take an aggressive step to save the long term viability of some of the G5 athletic departments and think outside the box.

What if rumors began to emerge that, as a result of the B12 discussions, many of the bigger G5 teams have begun having exploratory talks of creating a new football only conference. If all of the most powerful programs in the G5 banded together, it could potentially create a significant problem for the P5. A rumored 10 team conference c0nsisting of an East and West division could look something like this:

East
1. UConn
2. Cincinnati
3. Navy
4. Temple
5. UCF

West
1. BYU
2. Houston
3. Colorado St
4. Boise St
5. Fresno St

Part of the advantage the "P5" has is that it has created such a huge gap between even the worst P5 conference and the best G5 conference in terms of on-field performance. But if you created a conference such as the one above, there are many years that this new conference would be one of the best 5 conferences and "bust" the P5 frame of reference that they have created. And with the programs and markets (NY, Boston, OH, Baltimore, Philly, FL, Denver, TX, CA, the Mormons) of the above conference, the potential TV money would far surpass the money that any of the programs are currently getting. This new conference would present a potential threat to the monopoly that the P5 have worked so hard to create (and in reality, the threat is to the ACC and the B12, the two lowest on the totem poll of the P5--as the B1G, SEC, and P12 are insulated from threat in reality).

If "rumors" began to surface of this coming to fruition, my guess is that the TV powers and the P5 powers would find a little more incentive to kill the potential threat of the above conference and would help grease the wheels for current expansion. For the TV powers, the potential cost of a 2-4 team B12 expansion doesn't look so bad to if the above may be about to happen (losing their current low-ball deals for the best G5 schools and having to pay for the new conference rights on the open market). And obviously the B12 (and potentially ACC) would like to protect the monopoly they have going and not have to potentially split part of the P5 pie with anyone else.

I know it is a completely crazy idea. But if the conference expansion bubble is really beginning to lose air and might pop, then it may be a last minute hail-mary idea. And hell, even if it didn't work--being in the above conference for football and the Big East in all other sports is not only better in the short term versus staying in the AAC, it also would be a better long term play to keep us relevant and viable until the next conference realignment in 10 years.

My guess is that the above idea would scare some into pushing for action in the B12 and ESPN/FOX. Anyone want to contact Blauds and "tip him off" to the discussions?!;)
I think we'd have to find one more school for each division. That would put all the questions to bed about football playoffs, etc.
 
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Huh? How do you figure? If you are trying to put together the best programs to build a conference to compete with the P5 (in terms of national appeal, funding, branding, markets, demographics, etc), UConn in one of the first (if not first) on the list.


He's still mad about last week's loss.
 

UConnSportsGuy

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I think we'd have to find one more school for each division. That would put all the questions to bed about football playoffs, etc.


I get that the larger conference (whether it be 12 or 16) would include more teams and would get a larger TV contract in absolute terms. But I think the contract in terms of $ per team would be larger for the 10 team conference I laid out. Once you get past those 10 teams, you begin to degrade the payout per team (but again get more as a total conference). But who cares about the contract in terms of total payout to the conference. What we (and everyone) should care about is maximizing the payout each team receives.

In terms of on-field impact, going beyond those 10 teams is not significant either. Once you get past those 10 teams, I don't think you will find anyone who will seriously be able to "challenge" the P5 power schools. Once you go beyond those 10 you would actually be hurting the conference (in terms of conference strength, rankings, and strength of schedule). The 10 team conference maximizes both the TV money per school and the on-field strength of the conference (and ability to seriously challenge for a playoff berth for this new conference).

And the conference would still be able to have a championship game per the new CCG regulations passed this year by the NCAA. The requirements for leagues with less than 12 teams is now either that the conference plays a full round-robin, or there are two divisions that play a round robin. So given the ge0graphic footprint of this new conference, you don't even have to play a full round robin (9 conference games) to get the CCG (although you could if you wanted to in order to maintain high strength of schedules). Given the geographic dispersion in this conference, you could only play 4 conference games (against your own division) to still qualify for a CCG. So you could play anywhere from only 4 conference games (only your division) to 9 conference games (full round robin)--or anywhere in between. But this is important as it would given the programs scheduling flexibility given the geographic footprint.

And the final reason for keeping it at 10 teams is that it leaves you the ability to increase form 10 to 16 teams when the B12 eventually implodes. You will have the ability to pick up the B12 outcasts in 10 years when Texas and Oklahoma finally bail for the B1G/PAC. So you could add ISU/Baylor/TCU/WVU/Kansas/Kansas State to the existing 10 team conference. At that point, with the strength of those full athletic programs, you may decided to go to an all sports conference, or you could remain a football only.

So that is why I left it at 10 teams and think it is the best strategic move. It maximizes the payout for each school, maximizes the on-field quality of the conference (and threat to the P5), maximizes the frequency you can get in the playoffs (especially when they eventually expand to 8 teams), and provides the long term flexibility for the conference when the next realignment happens. If you go to more teams you water down both the payout and quality of the conference, as well as the ability to strategically expand in the future with quality teams. Forcing a larger conference for the immediate gain is what made the AAC so weak (eg, adding Tulane, ECU, Tulsa, etc).

As you can see, I have spend a lot of time on the can thinking about this! :D
 
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I get that the larger conference (whether it be 12 or 16) would include more teams and would get a larger TV contract in absolute terms. But I think the contract in terms of $ per team would be larger for the 10 team conference I laid out. Once you get past those 10 teams, you begin to degrade the payout per team (but again get more as a total conference). But who cares about the contract in terms of total payout to the conference. What we (and everyone) should care about is maximizing the payout each team receives.

In terms of on-field impact, going beyond those 10 teams is not significant either. Once you get past those 10 teams, I don't think you will find anyone who will seriously be able to "challenge" the P5 power schools. Once you go beyond those 10 you would actually be hurting the conference (in terms of conference strength, rankings, and strength of schedule). The 10 team conference maximizes both the TV money per school and the on-field strength of the conference (and ability to serious challenge for a playoff berth for this new conference).

And the conference would still be able to have a championship game per the new CCG regulations passed this year by the NCAA. The requirements for leagues with less than 12 teams is now either that the conference plays a full round-robin, or there are two divisions that play a round robin. So given the ge0graphic footprint of this new conference, you don't even have to play a full round robin (9 conference games) to get the CCG (although you could if you wanted to in order to maintain high strength of schedules). Given the geographic dispersion in this conference, you could only play 4 conference games (against your own division) to still qualify for a CCG. So you could play anywhere from only 4 conference games (only your division) to 9 conference games (full round robin)--or anywhere in between. But this is important as it would given the programs scheduling flexibility given the geographic footprint.

And the final reason for keeping it at 10 teams is that it leaves you the ability to increase form 10 to 16 teams when the B12 eventually implodes. You will have the ability to pick up the B12 outcasts in 10 years when Texas and Oklahoma finally bail for the B1G/PAC. So you could add ISU/Baylor/TCU/WVU/Kansas/Kansas State to the existing 10 team conference. At that point, with the strength of those full athletic programs, you may decided to go to an all sports conference, or you could remain a football only.

So that is why I left it at 10 teams and think it is the best strategic move. It maximizes the payout for each school, maximizes the on-field quality of the conference (and threat to the P5), maximizes the frequency you can get in the playoffs (especially when they eventually expand to 8 teams), and provides the long term flexibility for the conference when the next realignment happens. If you go to more teams you water down both the payout and quality of the conference, as well as the ability to strategically expand in the future with quality teams. Forcing a larger conference for the immediate gain is what made the AAC so weak (eg, adding Tulane, ECU, Tulsa, etc).

As you can see, I have spend a lot of time on the can thinking about this! :D
This is a great idea and I'm all for it. But if it starts to happen, the P5 will immediately start shopping like it's Black Friday at WalMart in order to grab what they can. They will not allow any more competition for the TV $.
 

UConnSportsGuy

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This is a great idea and I'm all for it. But if it starts to happen, the P5 will immediately start shopping like it's Black Friday at WalMart in order to grab what they can. They will not allow any more competition for the TV $.

That is exactly the point.

UConn can begin these "discussions" to create this conference. But we do this knowing full well that the likely impact is that the P5 and the TV networks get nervous and quickly steal a couple of the G5 teams to ensure this doesn't happen. And guess what...the most desirable team is UConn (or one of the most desirable if you don't think we are #1 on the list). In addition, if we are the leader and driving force in these discussion, they will want to cut off the snake at the head. So if the P5/TV powers want to put a stop to this, UConn is in the P5--best case scenario for us.

And worse case scenario--this doesn't cause the P5/TV powers to move...but we put together a much better conference for us to remain viable as an Athletic Department and position ourselves to "survive" until the next realignment happens.
 
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The G5 are simply enablers at this point. Perhaps the P5 want to break away but many P5 members need the G5. Most P5 members need the G5. The G5 should play hardball and demand a larger piece of the pie from the P5 and if the G5 continues to receive only crumbs, then let the separation proceed. We desperately want to become part of the problem rather than demand they fix the problem.
 
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I don't think it is crazy at all. If UCONN is left out again, we need to seriously think about how to maximize media dollars for the next deal. The best way to do this is to form a nationwide football-only conference that will spread across all time zones filled with teams that have fan interest. I would do the following:

  1. Discuss the concept with best of G5 schools available (BYU, Cincy, Navy etc.).
  2. Hire media consultants to help build the conference to maximize next media deal.
  3. Invite schools recommended by the media consultants.
  4. I would do either a 16 teams or 14 teams nationwide football only conference.
  5. Put rest of the sports in the BE.

Here is what I would do for a 16 teams conference:

East
1. UConn
2. Cincinnati
3. Navy
4. Temple
5. UCF
6. USF
7. ECU
8. Army

West
1. BYU
2. Houston
3. Colorado St
4. Boise St
5. Fresno St
6. SDSU
7. UNLV
8. Air Force

This could be a decent football conference. It would get all the academies in the same conference. It could get decent media dollars.

Doing this as a football only conference doesn't work because other than a handful of these schools, the majority don't have a place to park their non-football sports.

While the Big East MAY have an appetite for UConn & BYU currently has a home for their Olympic sports, nearly everyone else on this list has no home. Why would the Mountain West allow the majority of it's members to join another conference for football only?
 
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