Conference realignment timeline going forward is pretty clear

[MattMang23]

View attachment 16252

Literally a fan forum then. Is that Yawkey? And does that fan just talk to himself over and over? Is the forum just like an online diary with a bunch of journal entries?

 

[HuskyHawk]

After this whole B12 fiasco, I started thinking about why the networks and P5 powers were so upset about the potential of the B12 expanding. Then I looked at the current contracts and timing, and it is seems that it is all set up to be a controlled implosion from within and it is all coordinated across the P5 with a logical timeline. Here are the expiration of the current contracts/GORs by key conference/entity:

B1G : expires 2023
SEC : expires 2023

B12: expires 2025
Notre Dame : expires 2025
P12 : expires 2025

ACC : expires 2036

So the next expansion will come in 2022/2023 as the B1G and SEC (the two power players in all of this ) are getting ready to negotiate new contracts. With the B12 and Notre Dame contracts/GOR expiring in 2025, the decisions will be made in 2022/23 with a two year grace period for the moving teams to honor their GOR. The new conference landscape will actually begin after the 2025 contracts expire.

Do you think it is a coincidence that the two power conferences have deals that are expiring the exact same time? And no less, 2 years before the expiration of the contracts/GOR of the expansion targets? I don't think that is a coincidence. My guess is that there will be a "controlled implosion" of the conferences in 2025 that will create 4 super conferences (P12,B1G,SEC,ACC).

The timeline seems quite clear. We have 6-7 years to make our case for inclusion in the super conference landscape. We will need to double-down on the football program and hope that Diaco is the guy that can build our program back to respectability. Unfortunately, I am not a believer that he is the guy for the job--but we have no other choice given the timeline. If we fire Diaco after the '17 season and bring in a new coach--that does not leave enough time to build a successful program before the day of reckoning for college athletics. We need to double down on Diaco and the program and hope that he proves (the majority of us) wrong.

I just don't see how conference expansion happens outside of this timeline. Even if the B1G/SEC wanted to expand before then, the GOR/contracts are prohibitive.

The timeline is set. See you all in 5 years when the true conference realignment panic should set in.

Actually, I believe that the ACC has a "look in" around 2021. I don't think the timing is an accident. They won't be losing anyone until 2036, but they might very decide to add. I think it exists to give them an opportunity to evaluate what is going on, who might be available from the Big XII and where UConn is etc.

It's probably safe to say that nothing much will happen until then. With the American staying intact, UConn isn't going to make any Big East move. I found it interesting that Benedict mentioned talking with ESPN as a partner. Given that the ACCN goes live around 2018, and our league contract expires around the same time, I'm still holding out the possibility of a ND type deal with the ACC. UConn takes a reduced payout, and goes independent in football with a 4 game ACC scheduling arrangement. ESPN gives us a small football deal as well, 2-3 million maybe. UConn signs on to terms like ND, that we can't join the B1G.

 

[billybud]

I think that we are pretty well set for a decade....except for the Big 12

The ACC will not add #16 until hell freezes over or Notre Dame joins for football, whichever comes first.

The Big Ten won't pick up two more unless a desirable Big 12 program or two comes open in a decade.

The Big 12 is still the one...skip a playoff berth or two and the pressure to expand will build again.

The Pac? I doubt they have eyes for Boise or BYU...and there seems to be little pressure on them to expand.

 

[Marty Jackson]

After this whole B12 fiasco, I started thinking about why the networks and P5 powers were so upset about the potential of the B12 expanding. Then I looked at the current contracts and timing, and it is seems that it is all set up to be a controlled implosion from within and it is all coordinated across the P5 with a logical timeline. Here are the expiration of the current contracts/GORs by key conference/entity:

B1G : expires 2023
SEC : expires 2023

B12: expires 2025
Notre Dame : expires 2025
P12 : expires 2025

ACC : expires 2036

So the next expansion will come in 2022/2023 as the B1G and SEC (the two power players in all of this ) are getting ready to negotiate new contracts. With the B12 and Notre Dame contracts/GOR expiring in 2025, the decisions will be made in 2022/23 with a two year grace period for the moving teams to honor their GOR. The new conference landscape will actually begin after the 2025 contracts expire.

Do you think it is a coincidence that the two power conferences have deals that are expiring the exact same time? And no less, 2 years before the expiration of the contracts/GOR of the expansion targets? I don't think that is a coincidence. My guess is that there will be a "controlled implosion" of the conferences in 2025 that will create 4 super conferences (P12,B1G,SEC,ACC).

The timeline seems quite clear. We have 6-7 years to make our case for inclusion in the super conference landscape. We will need to double-down on the football program and hope that Diaco is the guy that can build our program back to respectability. Unfortunately, I am not a believer that he is the guy for the job--but we have no other choice given the timeline. If we fire Diaco after the '17 season and bring in a new coach--that does not leave enough time to build a successful program before the day of reckoning for college athletics. We need to double down on Diaco and the program and hope that he proves (the majority of us) wrong.

I just don't see how conference expansion happens outside of this timeline. Even if the B1G/SEC wanted to expand before then, the GOR/contracts are prohibitive.

The timeline is set. See you all in 5 years when the true conference realignment panic should set in.

Don't forget the playoff series expires around that time as well. I think that's the most important as that defines P5.
Without that changing, the big 12 could remain a P5.
This is a complete repeat of the big east.

The new playoff will be 4 conferences. 4 conference winners will get tie-in.

 

[Jae-VT]

Yes, which locks them to the ACC. But the fact that their NBC contract expires in 2025 is definitely relevant. Notre Dame isn't going to walk away from their NBC contract. But when the current deal expires, that may be a time when Notre Dame could look to join the ACC as a full member if their deal with NBC is going down hill. And coincidentally, it is at the same time that the B12 conference GOR expires (and thus when all the conference realignment implosion will occur). That is why the Notre Dame contract date is relevant.

Fair enough and I stand corrected.

 

[TerryD]

Fair enough and I stand corrected.

Look for the ND/NBC deal to be renewed around 2022 or 2023 for another ten years or so (2036?).

 

[Jae-VT]

Look for the ND/NBC deal to be renewed around 2022 or 2023 for another ten years or so (2036?).

You would know better than I TerryD. I only know VT, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, MD, GT, Clemson and FSU alumni. I leave the reading of the tea leaves for ND to you and other ND alumni.

 

[buddy]

In my mind, it has become clear that BC, FSU, and ESPN have won the battle to keep UConn out of the ACC for good. There will be no change to their conference until 2036, when a number of posters here will be long dead. I don't see ND joining their conference as football member either. I never thought I would live to agree with Billybud, but I believe that he is correct in saying the only hope will be the Big 12 expanding as they fail to consistently make the football playoffs, and still then, it is extremely questionable if UConn will ever be a fit for that conference. These past few months have really taken a toll on a lot of psyche's in UConn Nation, I have to admit.

 

[Santini35]

How do people think the existing conferences will be able to push their weak members out the door? Might not be easy....might not be contractually possible....might not be able to get a super majority of fellow members together to vote a school out. Given the lofty stakes involved, I don't think schools will leave w/o a protracted fight. No one is rolling over like Temple when forced out.

If this consolidation happens, I doubt it will happen by pushing schools out, likely for many of the reasons you mention. But that doesn't stop the upper end teams from leaving their current conference themselves and creating a new set of conferences that then get new well paid contracts. It's still not easy, but it's probably easier than trying to squeeze out the bottom end schools.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

After this whole B12 fiasco, I started thinking about why the networks and P5 powers were so upset about the potential of the B12 expanding. Then I looked at the current contracts and timing, and it is seems that it is all set up to be a controlled implosion from within and it is all coordinated across the P5 with a logical timeline. Here are the expiration of the current contracts/GORs by key conference/entity:

B1G : expires 2023
SEC : expires 2023

B12: expires 2025
Notre Dame : expires 2025
P12 : expires 2025

ACC : expires 2036

So the next expansion will come in 2022/2023 as the B1G and SEC (the two power players in all of this ) are getting ready to negotiate new contracts. With the B12 and Notre Dame contracts/GOR expiring in 2025, the decisions will be made in 2022/23 with a two year grace period for the moving teams to honor their GOR. The new conference landscape will actually begin after the 2025 contracts expire.

Do you think it is a coincidence that the two power conferences have deals that are expiring the exact same time? And no less, 2 years before the expiration of the contracts/GOR of the expansion targets? I don't think that is a coincidence. My guess is that there will be a "controlled implosion" of the conferences in 2025 that will create 4 super conferences (P12,B1G,SEC,ACC).

The timeline seems quite clear. We have 6-7 years to make our case for inclusion in the super conference landscape. We will need to double-down on the football program and hope that Diaco is the guy that can build our program back to respectability. Unfortunately, I am not a believer that he is the guy for the job--but we have no other choice given the timeline. If we fire Diaco after the '17 season and bring in a new coach--that does not leave enough time to build a successful program before the day of reckoning for college athletics. We need to double down on Diaco and the program and hope that he proves (the majority of us) wrong.

I just don't see how conference expansion happens outside of this timeline. Even if the B1G/SEC wanted to expand before then, the GOR/contracts are prohibitive.

The timeline is set. See you all in 5 years when the true conference realignment panic should set in.

4x16 = 64 teams - and we're still out.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

I agree with this, but there is always a twist.

It wouldn't surprise me if the P5s get even more efficient and decide to shed dead weight like Wake, BC, Iowa State etc.

Never happen.

 

[HoopsFan21]

If this consolidation happens, I doubt it will happen by pushing schools out, likely for many of the reasons you mention. But that doesn't stop the upper end teams from leaving their current conference themselves and creating a new set of conferences that then get new well paid contracts. It's still not easy, but it's probably easier than trying to squeeze out the bottom end schools.

It's easy to do. This is literally what the Catholic schools just did to us. TV contracts aren't going to get bigger and bigger in perpetuity. If ESPN or FOX says a league with Ohio State, Alabama, FSU, ND, Michigan, USC, Penn State, UNC, Duke, Texas, add another 5-10 schools to this, would be worth $15 billion over ten years for football and basketball rights, how quickly do you think those schools would leave and form a new super conference that keeps all the money to themselves? What incentive or benefit is there for Ohio State to stay attached at the hip to Purdue at that point?

 

[Exit 4]

If this consolidation happens, I doubt it will happen by pushing schools out, likely for many of the reasons you mention. But that doesn't stop the upper end teams from leaving their current conference themselves and creating a new set of conferences that then get new well paid contracts. It's still not easy, but it's probably easier than trying to squeeze out the bottom end schools.

Right. But I think the only way to push so many university presidents and their constituents to make form a new super conference is if the delta between the proposed super conference and the alternative is cataclysmic. Even then, it’s hard for the non sports crowd at a major university to understand it all and think it’s worthwhile.


In the end, it will be easier to let NW, Wake and others stay.

 

[kingdobbs]

How do people think the existing conferences will be able to push their weak members out the door? Might not be easy....might not be contractually possible....might not be able to get a super majority of fellow members together to vote a school out. Given the lofty stakes involved, I don't think schools will leave w/o a protracted fight. No one is rolling over like Temple when forced out.

By starting a new conference with blackjack and hookers, then not inviting anyone they don't want. Like the Mountain West did to the WAC. Or the ACC did to the SoCon. Or the SEC did to the SoCon.

Let's say hypothetically, the ACC GOR and any other contractual agreements expired today. And every member but BC and Syracuse (or Wake or Pitt or whoever else they don't want) gets an invite to a new "Atlantic Coastal Conference".

Temple "rolled over" because they lacked a choice in the matter. They didn't have a vote.

 

[Exit 4]

By starting a new conference with blackjack and hookers, then not inviting anyone they don't want. Like the Mountain West did to the WAC. Or the ACC did to the SoCon. Or the SEC did to the SoCon.

Let's say hypothetically, the ACC GOR and any other contractual agreements expired today. And every member but BC and Syracuse (or Wake or Pitt or whoever else they don't want) gets an invite to a new "Atlantic Coastal Conference".

Temple "rolled over" because they lacked a choice in the matter. They didn't have a vote.

Temple rolled over because the $$ wasn't what it is today. No one is rolling over today.

I think we are under appreciating the long term "community" aspect between member B1G schools and some of the core ACC schools, and with PAC and SEC schools too. There are real cultural, academic, institutional and political binds that won't be easy to break.

I think we are headed to land of four super conferences and no less, because any less may bring anti trust action. Maybe the super conferences deal with the lesser baggage like Wake, Purdue and others by forcing them out of football - but keeping them for all other sports. There really aren't too many obvious weaklings that don't belong; Wake, Purdue and maybe NW....and BC if they keep their winning ways up.

 

[Yawkey Way]

Out of curiosity, do you come on the UConn fan forum and search "BC"?
.

Yes, most of the time, thats what I do. That said, there are quite a few times when threads are of interest to me that are unrelated to BC. However, lots of times.. most of the time as a matter of fact, I just read, but do not post. Now however, I will take a breather from here for awhile ( maybe till the BC- Uconn game ) as there is not much more to learn on the realignment biz now, as that seems to be over, and for a few years now, and I can take a hint, if my posts on here become irritating to many ( not my goal ). So I'll leave for a bit, and allow others to argue, agree, or whatever with others among themselves now. Take Care.

 

[TerryD]

It's easy to do. This is literally what the Catholic schools just did to us. TV contracts aren't going to get bigger and bigger in perpetuity. If ESPN or FOX says a league with Ohio State, Alabama, FSU, ND, Michigan, USC, Penn State, UNC, Duke, Texas, add another 5-10 schools to this, would be worth $15 billion over ten years for football and basketball rights, how quickly do you think those schools would leave and form a new super conference that keeps all the money to themselves? What incentive or benefit is there for Ohio State to stay attached at the hip to Purdue at that point?

That is an interesting take. For years on message boards, I read that the true stable conferences were those that guaranteed equal revenue for all schools.

Posters were almost unanimous that the best model was always the equal revenue distribution one. I always thought that crazy, that model only meant that the weaker schools took value from the Alabama, Michigan, Southern Cal type schools and their drawing power.

Schools like ND and Texas were criticized for "being in it for themselves". I have always thought that all schools act in their own best self interests. The only variable was the means chosen.

But, what happened to the "conference solidarity" model that everyone touted for a decade or two?

 

[SpartyCyclone]

4x16 = 64 teams - and we're still out.

I don't understand the infatuation with four superconferences with 16 teams apiece. Each conference is an entity of their own, and they will do what is best for their own self interest. You can no more force them to have the same number of schools each than you can force GM, Ford, and Chrysler to offer the same number of models of cars/trucks. The market may dictate similar levels (compact, SUV, mid-size, etc.), but you can't force equality.

 

[ThetaZoo]

I don't understand the infatuation with four superconferences with 16 teams apiece. Each conference is an entity of their own, and they will do what is best for their own self interest. You can no more force them to have the same number of schools each than you can force GM, Ford, and Chrysler to offer the same number of models of cars/trucks. The market may dictate similar levels (compact, SUV, mid-size, etc.), but you can't force equality.

When 1 or 2 overseers hold the purse strings they can dictate equality, inequality or anything else that they want.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I don't understand the infatuation with four superconferences with 16 teams apiece. Each conference is an entity of their own, and they will do what is best for their own self interest. You can no more force them to have the same number of schools each than you can force GM, Ford, and Chrysler to offer the same number of models of cars/trucks. The market may dictate similar levels (compact, SUV, mid-size, etc.), but you can't force equality.

I'm with you. At 64 teams that's still way too many mouths to feed and too many garbage schools. Conferences are top heavy. You really only need maybe the top 4 or 5 schools from each conference. I'd take these teams:

B1G: OSU, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska
SEC: Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, A&M
PAC: Cal, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Oregon
B12: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas
ACC: Duke, UNC, ND, FSU

Then divide them up into six team divisions:

East: PSU, OSU, Kentucky, UNC, Duke, Michigan
West: Cal, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Texas
North: Wisconsin, ND, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Nebraska
South: Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, A&M, FSU

While not perfect (forgive me as I threw this together quickly off the top of my head), this would be a pretty good hoops and football conference with coverage from coast to coast. Then you can have two rounds of football playoffs to determine the champ, and in basketball you can have three rounds by having the top two teams in each division play each other first.

 

[ZooCougar]

Never happen.

Why do you say that? Is that too predatory?

At a minimum in the next round of things I would be surprised if the schools in these conferences continue to dole out equal revenue from TV. Why should BC get as much money as Clemson and FSU?

 

[uc1974]

You have two schools that are purely basketball schools and will be totally unable to compete in FB long term. Despite some modest success very recently Duke is really bad in FB and no one goes to the games. Same with Kansas, more or less although they are least a state school and the possibility exists that they could become decent. Other choices are spot on.

 

[JeepCSC]

That is an interesting take. For years on message boards, I read that the true stable conferences were those that guaranteed equal revenue for all schools.

Posters were almost unanimous that the best model was always the equal revenue distribution one. I always thought that crazy, that model only meant that the weaker schools took value from the Alabama, Michigan, Southern Cal type schools and their drawing power.

Schools like ND and Texas were criticized for "being in it for themselves". I have always thought that all schools act in their own best self interests. The only variable was the means chosen.

But, what happened to the "conference solidarity" model that everyone touted for a decade or two?

Texas is in the process of shedding more conference members who are clamoring for conference solidarity. Is that what you are talking about?

 

[TRest]

Texas is in the process of shedding more conference members who are clamoring for conference solidarity. Is that what you are talking about?

Terry hates it when people say ND has a parasitic relationship with its conference, because ND is only looking out for itself. If Texas or FSU starts advocating for unequal revenue sharing of conference television money, he will be vindicated as those schools will look just as greedy and self-serving as ND. It's worth noting that hasn't happened yet, but he wants to get out in front of the argument.

 

[TerryD]

Terry hates it when people say ND has a parasitic relationship with its conference, because ND is only looking out for itself. If Texas or FSU starts advocating for unequal revenue sharing of conference television money, he will be vindicated as those schools will look just as greedy and self-serving as ND. It's worth noting that hasn't happened yet, but he wants to get out in front of the argument.

No, I just noted the irony of those who now want/hope for the conference equal revenue sharing model to fail or be modified.

I didn't bring up the subject or "get out in front of it". I responded to someone else's post on the issue.