Charlie Creme - Seeding Changes & Bubble Teams

[Wbbfan1]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...s-means-many-changes-first-bracketology-march

It would be a disservice to Oregon State and the PAC12 if Oregon State is not in the Spokane Region. Put a East Coast team in Spokane and attendance would be impacted.

 

[UcMiami]

Arkansas. Sorry, but I think the NCAA should have a rule that any team under .400 in conference play is automatically excluded from the tournament. I would say it should be any team more than 1 game under .500 in conference play or two games under ...
If you can't win in conference why should you get to dance?

 

[mtsuraider06]

Arkansas. Sorry, but I think the NCAA should have a rule that any team under .400 in conference play is automatically excluded from the tournament. I would say it should be any team more than 1 game under .500 in conference play or two games under ...
If you can't win in conference why should you get to dance?

Because they have to have 64 teams, and even with a losing SEC record, they still have a better resume than many mid-major teams.

I personally don't think they will make it. I think the SEC will only get 6 teams (South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, Texas A&M, & Kentucky). Any other teams beyond these six will be fillers because the NCAA didn't have enough tournament worthy teams.

 

[Icebear]

Charlie needs to learn to pencil in UCONN as the #1 seed and to wait until my birthday to fill in the rest.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Arkansas would set a new standard for the committee, as the previous low for conference record selection was 7-9/8-10 records, though last year because of the demise of the old Big East they started letting a bunch of teams with losing conference records in, mainly from the SEC. At 6-10 Arkansas would be setting a new standard low, though the #39 Sagarin rating is decent, and Creme is suggesting that the wins at home over Iowa, OK, and GA and road win over Middle Tenn in top 50 plus win over LSU adds up to kind of a grab bag of stuff that's good enough. Still thinking they need two wins in the SECT. WVU also needs to win its game at KSU as expected and do something in the B12T.

And if someone's theory that the committee does not use the S-curve and instead gives all precedence to geographical proximity is really true, I can't understand Creme's placement of top teams like Oregon State and Tennessee. Must just be a big mistake on Creme's part, I guess.

Another thing to remember is that this is with no mid major conference tournament upsets penciled in, and there will likely be one or two of prominent teams which will have better resumes than some of these bad P5 teams.

 

[stwainfan]

How much of what Charlie does is actually correct?

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Charlie is usually accurate 55% to 60% tops! except for the top 2 seeds he's really Not that accurate in seeds or sites!

 

[JoePgh]

Given that much of the Selection Committee's process is (to be kind) political, and Mr. Creme's job is to read the minds of the Committee members and guess what political compromises they will make, it seems pointless to criticize him for not being a highly accurate mind-reader. If the process were more technical (so that someone could say there is a "right" answer that will or should always result from following a known set of rules), then it would make more sense to criticize him for getting it "wrong".

Remember last year, when the published "rules" would have had UConn going to Louisville based on geography, and probably wind up playing the Cardinals for the 4th time? Creme followed that "rule" until the last bracket that he did, when he finally (and as it turned out correctly) prognosticated that the Committee would break its own rules and follow common sense by sending UConn to Nebraska. But really that is just a mind-reading exercise.

This year, I think it is fairly predictable that the Committee will keep Oregon State in Spokane even if it means breaking other rules. Right now, he has Tennessee (the highest 2-seed) in Spokane and Oregon State in Albany. He has Baylor as the #2 seed in Notre Dame's Greensboro bracket, and Florida State as the #2 seed in South Carolina's Oklahome City bracket.

Hmmm ... So let's say Oregon State gets put in Spokane. Then Tennessee, Baylor, and Florida State will have to be assigned to Albany (UConn), Greensboro (ND), or Oklahoma State (Gamecocks). It's safe to say that Tennessee won't be put in South Carolina's bracket (same conference; will probably already have played twice), so the choices are Greensboro (closer to Knoxville) or Albany. The geographic "rules" would say that Tennessee gets sent to Greensboro. But they have already played Notre Dame this year (and every year for the last several years) so from a fan interest perspective, that would be snooze compared to the alternative of Albany, where the probable Elite 8 game would be between two feuding teams that haven't played in EIGHT YEARS!

Methinks the Committee will focus on the TV ratings more than the "rules" and put Tennessee in Albany (if the seedings stay as they are).

I also think that Jeff Goldberg's new book on the rivalry will be on sale in the arena lobby!

 

[mtsuraider06]

Given that much of the Selection Committee's process is (to be kind) political, and Mr. Creme's job is to read the minds of the Committee members and guess what political compromises they will make, it seems pointless to criticize him for not being a highly accurate mind-reader. If the process were more technical (so that someone could say there is a "right" answer that will or should always result from following a known set of rules), then it would make more sense to criticize him for getting it "wrong".

Remember last year, when the published "rules" would have had UConn going to Louisville based on geography, and probably wind up playing the Cardinals for the 4th time? Creme followed that "rule" until the last bracket that he did, when he finally (and as it turned out correctly) prognosticated that the Committee would break its own rules and follow common sense by sending UConn to Nebraska. But really that is just a mind-reading exercise.

This year, I think it is fairly predictable that the Committee will keep Oregon State in Spokane even if it means breaking other rules. Right now, he has Tennessee (the highest 2-seed) in Spokane and Oregon State in Albany. He has Baylor as the #2 seed in Notre Dame's Greensboro bracket, and Florida State as the #2 seed in South Carolina's Oklahome City bracket.

Hmmm ... So let's say Oregon State gets put in Spokane. Then Tennessee, Baylor, and Florida State will have to be assigned to Albany (UConn), Greensboro (ND), or Oklahoma State (Gamecocks). It's safe to say that Tennessee won't be put in South Carolina's bracket (same conference; will probably already have played twice), so the choices are Greensboro (closer to Knoxville) or Albany. The geographic "rules" would say that Tennessee gets sent to Greensboro. But they have already played Notre Dame this year (and every year for the last several years) so from a fan interest perspective, that would be snooze compared to the alternative of Albany, where the probable Elite 8 game would be between two feuding teams that haven't played in EIGHT YEARS!

Methinks the Committee will focus on the TV ratings more than the "rules" and put Tennessee in Albany (if the seedings stay as they are).

I also think that Jeff Goldberg's new book on the rivalry will be on sale in the arena lobby!

Tennessee will at worst be the #5 seed, so they won't be matched with the Top 1 seed (UConn). Tennessee will be in either Greensboro or Spokane, unless Notre Dame doesn't win the ACC tournament. If they don't, South Carolina will likely be in Greensboro, ND in OKC, so Tennessee will either be in Spokane or OKC. It won't be Albany unless they completely throw out all rules of the bracket.

 

[DobbsRover2]

So are we skipping the conference tournaments this year? Or is it just that you already know the results of all the action for the next week and a half in advance? If so, please give me all the results so I can place some sure-thing bets. Otherwise it's silly to be making statements that UTenn is a guaranteed #5 team (the Vols are not a #5 seed, so you mean the #5 team obviously).

If the Vols win the SECT like last year they will be likely be either the #4 or #5 team, but if they lose in the semifinal like in 2013 or in the final, they could well be a #6-#8. There would not need to be any guidelines bent to get them to Albany with UTenn as a #6 team, though it would be against tradition if they were #5. The quest is for overall fairly equal (but not exact) competitive balance in each region, not strict adherence to the S-curve.

 

[vtcwbuff]

I miss the "good old days." Crème has 8 of the old Big East teams in his brackets. The AAC has 2 .

 

[Wbbfan1]

Latest Bracketology: http://espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Given that much of the Selection Committee's process is (to be kind) political, and Mr. Creme's job is to read the minds of the Committee members and guess what political compromises they will make, it seems pointless to criticize him for not being a highly accurate mind-reader. If the process were more technical (so that someone could say there is a "right" answer that will or should always result from following a known set of rules), then it would make more sense to criticize him for getting it "wrong".

Remember last year, when the published "rules" would have had UConn going to Louisville based on geography, and probably wind up playing the Cardinals for the 4th time? Creme followed that "rule" until the last bracket that he did, when he finally (and as it turned out correctly) prognosticated that the Committee would break its own rules and follow common sense by sending UConn to Nebraska. But really that is just a mind-reading exercise.

This year, I think it is fairly predictable that the Committee will keep Oregon State in Spokane even if it means breaking other rules. Right now, he has Tennessee (the highest 2-seed) in Spokane and Oregon State in Albany. He has Baylor as the #2 seed in Notre Dame's Greensboro bracket, and Florida State as the #2 seed in South Carolina's Oklahome City bracket.

Hmmm ... So let's say Oregon State gets put in Spokane. Then Tennessee, Baylor, and Florida State will have to be assigned to Albany (UConn), Greensboro (ND), or Oklahoma State (Gamecocks). It's safe to say that Tennessee won't be put in South Carolina's bracket (same conference; will probably already have played twice), so the choices are Greensboro (closer to Knoxville) or Albany. The geographic "rules" would say that Tennessee gets sent to Greensboro. But they have already played Notre Dame this year (and every year for the last several years) so from a fan interest perspective, that would be snooze compared to the alternative of Albany, where the probable Elite 8 game would be between two feuding teams that haven't played in EIGHT YEARS!

Methinks the Committee will focus on the TV ratings more than the "rules" and put Tennessee in Albany (if the seedings stay as they are).

I also think that Jeff Goldberg's new book on the rivalry will be on sale in the arena lobby!

JoePgh- - - I wasn't trying to criticize Charlie Creme, just stating a fact! I like his Bracketology and wish he would set it up so you could print it out! As is if you print it every bracket is on the left side of the page for 10 or 11 pages! So I hand write it out each time! He's guessing which set of 1,000 rules the committee will use each year!

 

[EricLA]

I still don't understand why they are so scared to put Tenn in UCONN's bracket. Some folks would suggest there's a "S" curve and that MD is the least of the 1 seeds while Tenn is the best of the 2 seeds, but they've ignored that in the past. Either way would enjoy that bracket for the most part. Another shot at Stanford, L'ville (who we've owned) or Oregon State.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I still don't understand why they are so scared to put Tenn in UCONN's bracket. Some folks would suggest there's a "S" curve and that MD is the least of the 1 seeds while Tenn is the best of the 2 seeds, but they've ignored that in the past. Either way would enjoy that bracket for the most part. Another shot at Stanford, L'ville (who we've owned) or Oregon State.

Not unheard of, but not at all preferred by the committee because of the squawking that SEC teams do, though they squawk no matter what the brackets are.

But if everything turns out as projected in the conference tournaments (which it won't), there's not much difference between the #2's, and OSU in Spokane would be pretty much a given, and since UTenn could not be with USCar, placing the Vols in Albany would an easy one after being separated from the Huskies for so long and being constantly messing with ND (though only once in the Tourney in the previous six years).

 

[ThisJustIn]

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "political." Since Sue Donohoe's time, the Committee has been more open - hence folks being invited to the "mock" bracket games. Have there been some goofs and some "wtfs"? Sure, but that's to be expected in a situation where perceived "fairness" and "butts in the seats."

 

[reno tony]

I hope he has USF in there somewhere. Went to the game last night and they are very good. Courtney Williams is lightning quick. She took Moriah off the dribble more than once and has a great pull-up jumper and releases her lay-ups early to avoid the blocks. The weole team is fast and quite frankly, they were as good as UCONN the second half. It exposed a chink in the UCONN armor.... quick teams. They ran the transition very well. I would love to put them in the SEC next year and have them reek havoc with them.... just for fun.

 

[DobbsRover2]

USF is a certainty, and Creme has them currently at a #7 seed, which is well below what their #16 Sagarin \ #15 Massey rating would put them, but they get no love in the AP and Coaches rankings and Creme is only trying to be realistic about what he thinks the committee will do. Last night might have helped the Bulls, but they still need to do well in the AACT to move up.

 

[DishNSwish]

New Dishin & Swishin podcast today with Charlie as my guest (3 pm ET on Hoopfeed.com).

With more time than 2 minutes or 140 characters, most of what Charlie does is explained thoroughly.

 

[stwainfan]

He said he moved Maryland up. Because they beat a Northwestern team with 6 conference losses.

 

[DishNSwish]

He said he moved Maryland up. Because they beat a Northwestern team with 6 conference losses.

That was ranked #25 in the country

 

[DobbsRover2]

Per Sagarin, Maryland's last two wins have been by a smallish margin at home versus #57 Indiana (under performance) and by a big margin on the road versus #19 Northwestern (over performance).

UTenn since that USCar loss has won by a smallish margin on the road versus #42 Georgia (under performance) and at home by a big margin over #69 Vandy (average performance, lowly Auburn beat sliding Commodores in Nashville by 12 points in the game before).

The problem for the Vols is that much of the meat of the SEC is half-cooked, and MD is getting the better conference games in the B10 this year.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Tennessee will at worst be the #5 seed, so they won't be matched with the Top 1 seed (UConn). Tennessee will be in either Greensboro or Spokane, unless Notre Dame doesn't win the ACC tournament. If they don't, South Carolina will likely be in Greensboro, ND in OKC, so Tennessee will either be in Spokane or OKC. It won't be Albany unless they completely throw out all rules of the bracket.

As much as I liked Joep's post, you took the words out of my mouth regarding Albany being a no-no for Tennessee.

 

[stwainfan]

Tennessee has a stronger SOS and more wins against ranked teams. We will see how it is on selection Monday.

 

[DishNSwish]

Tennessee has a stronger SOS and more wins against ranked teams. We will see how it is on selection Monday.

We discussed this pretty heavily on the podcast, whether UT can move up to #1 seed regardless of tourneys. Short of an early departure from MD or SC, it's going to be tough.

Precedent set last year with SC losing conf tourney and still getting #1 seed ahead of Stanford.