C'est La TV: College Football Is About To Change A Whole Lot More Than You Realize | The Boneyard

C'est La TV: College Football Is About To Change A Whole Lot More Than You Realize

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Drew

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» C’est La TV: College Football Is About To Change A Whole Lot More Than You Realize

"If you’ve worked in media for a while, you’ve seen a boatload of what we lovingly call “consolidation” over the last couple decades. For those of us who’ve seen enough consolidation, what’s happening with college football looks awfully familiar, and we know what’s about to change. Everything.

Okay, not everything, but enough major changes are coming to make what’s already happened – 14-team conferences, West Virginia in the Big 12, Maryland leaving the ACC for the Big 10, traditional bowl alliances all but scuttled – look like minor alterations in the landscape. Get ready to watch the entire structure of Division 1 college football go through a ginormous revamp, and there will be winners and losers aplenty.

The stupidest thing to say right now would be, “And what do you think is driving all that change?” You already know the answer. Money.

It’s almost pointless to talk about Nick Saban’s $7 million paycheck, so let’s leave it at that. Instead, how about this tidbit: Mark Freaking Hudspeth is making seven figures at Louisiana Lafayette! Assistants are now pulling sick money; for example, new LSU DC Dave Aranda’s three-year deal starts at $1.3 million and then escalates.

You already know where the money is coming from: Big TV. (Okay, so that quarter-billion dollar dealthat Ohio State got from Nike tells you there’s someone else who’s also throwing ridiculous dough at the game. Big Apparel wants exactly what Big TV wants: more viewers watching “their” schools play football.)

There’s an old saying: he who has the money makes the rules. It’s an old saying for a reason: it’s true.

Given that Big TV already decides when games are played, how long do you think it will be before ESPN & Friends decide who gets to play in the games that matter?"



Incredibly long article but very interesting with valid points. Breaks it down into a couple different predictions:

4 "power" conferences and 4 "G5" conferences
Expanded playoff
Further consolidation
 

CL82

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Step 2: In the media, market size = money. In the media, the bigger the market — the more people who can watch your product — the more revenue you generate. Consequently, if college football’s various powers that be — conferences, A.D.’s, university presidents — want to drive revenue, they need to make sure the most eyeballs possible are watching not just the playoff games, but those mid-October homecoming blowouts too. If you’re one of Jim Delany’s Big 10 minions, you didn’t decide to add Maryland and Rutgers to your conference to enhance the quality of the conference experience for the Iowa softball team that now has to jet to Jersey to play every year; you did it to add the New York, Washington, and Baltimore TV markets to your bottom line.

Wanna be bored? You can download the entire Nielsen TV market rankings right here. All you really need to know is that market #1 (New York) is more important than market #2 (El Lay), which is way more important than, say, market #21 (St. Louis), which is massively more important than market #201 (St. Joe, MO).

Remember that, because it’s media people cutting the big checks that make those huge salaries (and the ones that end up in university coffers) possible, they’re going to be thinking like media people when they decide whether to offer that next huge money fix that big-time college football is now hooked on. Consequently, they’re going to be thinking which markets matter to them.

Now, think about this: if your dear old alma mater is located in a small television market, how much value does its program have to the nice people who are writing massive checks to buy up the rights to show dear old alma mater’s games on television? Programs located in or around, say, Los Angeles (hello UCLA and USC) are, barring some curveball, a lot more important to Big TV than, say, programs around Syracuse, with 1/15th the population of L.A.

That’s exactly what the people who write the checks are thinking about.
....
Here comes consolidation – a lot more consolidation.

  • Fewer teams will be cutting up the financial pie down the road.
  • Nothing is sacred.
  • When it comes to traditions, expect the unexpectable.
...
Again, remember that the B1G now includes Rutgers, Maryland, and Penn State, and you start to get an idea. Then, take a look at the AAC. Cincinnati and Memphis are top-50 markets fit for promoting, UConn would increase reach into the Northeast Corridor, and then there are two crazy ideas: hideous old Temple is in market #4, plays in an NFL yard, and isn’t exactly awful any more. Throw in Big Ten money that would amp up the Owls’ basketball program too, and the mind reels. Oh, and there have been occasional rumors about the B1G trying to reach into the Southwest. The University of Houston is turning into a major program (more on that again in a minute) and one that currently has an obvious Ohio State connection.
 
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Written by Captain Chaos? Neff said!

"I love college football. I’m sarcastic. I’ve worked in the media my entire adult life, just not in the way you’d guess. I write this stuff solely for my own enjoyment though I'll obviously be quite pleased if you enjoy to too"

Wonder if he has any relatives in WVA?
 
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"I love college football. I’m sarcastic. I’ve worked in the media my entire adult life, just not in the way you’d guess. I write this stuff solely for my own enjoyment though I'll obviously be quite pleased if you enjoy to too"

Wonder if he has any relatives in WVA?

He only has one relative in WVA. His wife & sister.
 
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But whaler11 says nothing is going to happen for 6 years.

Horseshite. Not in my world. When huge disparity leaves major players out of richest sector of an industry, you are going to see significant movement. Soon. No one wants to sit on their hands and contemplate what might go well for them; particularly if they have market leverage today.
 
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But whaler11 says nothing is going to happen for 6 years.

Horseshite. Not in my world. When huge disparity leaves major players out of richest sector of an industry, you are going to see significant movement. Soon. No one wants to sit on their hands and contemplate what might go well for them; particularly if they have market leverage today.
But that's just it: no one has leverage today. The B1G just hit the powerball while everyone else is locked up in their own conference GORs for way less money for at least the next five years which will be about the time the B1G begins negotiations on its next contract. When that time comes, they can walk in and pluck the best of the ACC and Big XII teams for $0 unlike the Maryland fiasco. Once schools in other conferences no longer have a financial incentive to stay, the B1G can swoop in and take whatever schools it wants. The target schools get a big raise without a messy breakup with their former conference, and the B1G acquires a very valuable property without having to fork out another school's exit fees. For now, the B1G can sit there and laugh all the way to the bank. They have zero reason to expand now assuming that the contract is not contingent on expansion and by now you'd think the schools in consideration would be known since that would have to be priced in. I don't think these things are just happy accidents with respect to the new B1G contract, the fact that they planned it to end just as other schools' GORs are up, and the Big XII no longer feeling the need to expand any time soon. To me the B1G has sent a message that their next expansion targets will come from those conferences whose GORs expire in 5-6 years and everyone now knows it, and you can probably start making some pretty good guesses as to who from those leagues are at the top of Jim Delaney's wish list.
 
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Or maybe the six year contract is about Delaney playing safe...not knowing how Fox will be at getting viewers and upping ratings, just tie in for a short ride.
 

CL82

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Or maybe the six year contract is about Delaney playing safe...not knowing how Fox will be at getting viewers and upping ratings, just tie in for a short ride.
I suspect that he could get his numbers for a longer run. The market is changing and nobody is sure what that will do value.
 

whaler11

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But whaler11 says nothing is going to happen for 6 years.

Horseshite. Not in my world. When huge disparity leaves major players out of richest sector of an industry, you are going to see significant movement. Soon. No one wants to sit on their hands and contemplate what might go well for them; particularly if they have market leverage today.

Sort of like the 3 million tweets and hundreds of posts here have predicted since Louisville moved....

All those posts and tweets about how the GORs were going to be tested...

And nada.

Anytime we want to take a stroll through the archives and see who has been right more often than wrong - I'm up for it. Seeing as I was about the only one saying the ACC wasn't going to implode over losing Clemson and Florida State to the Big 12 that's a good place to start.
 
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Or maybe the six year contract is about Delaney playing safe...not knowing how Fox will be at getting viewers and upping ratings, just tie in for a short ride.
The ACC and Big XII are dead men walking conferences. The B1G and SEC will take whatever teams they like, and there will be duck all the little brother conferences can do about it. At $50M, Delaney isn't going to be targeting mid-majors.
 
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That has actually been the narrative for five years now...
 
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Sort of like the 3 million tweets and hundreds of posts here have predicted since Louisville moved....

All those posts and tweets about how the GORs were going to be tested...

And nada.

Anytime we want to take a stroll through the archives and see who has been right more often than wrong - I'm up for it. Seeing as I was about the only one saying the ACC wasn't going to implode over losing Clemson and Florida State to the Big 12 that's a good place to start.

ECON 101

Cartel's cheat. Cartel's break up when one participant out leverages others.

This Power 5 ain't gonna stand. We see all the elements right now. Maybe if you got a good MBA you would have heard this a few times. The ACC is not in a good position; and Louisville and BC may ultimately be on an outside wing hoping the plane lands safely. It won't. This College Football/Conference money stuff is heading towards a major breakup. And, there will be some opportunity for UConn.

I guarantee you that it won't be 6 years. Not after what we are seeing right now in the new negotiations from the B1G. Why expand? Because everytime the thing opens up with new schools, they have increased their Gross Revenue far more than small increments.
 

whaler11

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ECON 101

Cartel's cheat. Cartel's break up when one participant out leverages others.

This Power 5 ain't gonna stand. We see all the elements right now. Maybe if you got a good MBA you would have heard this a few times. The ACC is not in a good position; and Louisville and BC may ultimately be on an outside wing hoping the plane lands safely. It won't. This College Football/Conference money stuff is heading towards a major breakup. And, there will be some opportunity for UConn.

I guarantee you that it won't be 6 years. Not after what we are seeing right now in the new negotiations from the B1G. Why expand? Because everytime the thing opens up with new schools, they have increased their Gross Revenue far more than small increments.

LOL. You don't think there is a point where further expansion leads to diminishing returns?

You haven't noticed that the entity that has supported the rights increasing has stopped spending?

The Big Ten can wait 6 years and pick the ripest fruit if they so choose. Why would they compound the risk of what is going on in the cable industry until they know what their next contract is going to look like.

Why would they bother fighting GORs on the schools they want when they expire at the same time their contract ends?
 
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When it comes to money, they want more today. Just like corporations restructure and take huge losses in the current year, then their stock goes up because the future looks brighter. I could see major changes in the P5 to cut the fat, pay the penalties, with the promise of a far better product. I could see how nothing is off the table if it means maximizing revenue from every possible source and squeezing every ounce of contractual juice from the media tree. Even if they can really only see a few years down the road.
Bottom line, get your Texases and Oklahomas in the same conference with FSU's and Clemsons and continue to whittle away the Wakes. Money goes up.
 

whaler11

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When it comes to money, they want more today. Just like corporations restructure and take huge losses in the current year, then their stock goes up because the future looks brighter. I could see major changes in the P5 to cut the fat, pay the penalties, with the promise of a far better product. I could see how nothing is off the table if it means maximizing revenue from every possible source and squeezing every ounce of contractual juice from the media tree. Even if they can really only see a few years down the road.
Bottom line, get your Texases and Oklahomas in the same conference with FSU's and Clemsons and continue to whittle away the Wakes. Money goes up.

Continue? Nobody has gotten whittled away yet.

These aren't corporations. They aren't going to make a move to make $5 million more in 2017 and have to cut $10 million in 2019.

The employees don't have equity to dump. They don't have to answer to shareholders.

If you've paying attention I have no idea how you could have it so wrong.

Nobody wants to play in a champions league version of college sports. The coaches and athletic directors get paid for going 10-2 against the Wakes. They get fired losing to Texas and Oklahoma.
 

SubbaBub

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There is a flaw in his thinking. When it comes to college sports, the number of people who care about the brand in that market is just as important at the market itself.

Yes you can build a brand (Miami, TCU, UConn), but there is a finite amount of people that will ever care about Temple in a State where Penn State exists. TCU will always be close away game for the bigger B12 and SEC programs. Miami's base was more national than local when they were good, which is kinda what the networks want, (a blend of strong national and local following) UConn has a stronger following in market and a strong naitonal following in sports not named football.

That's how I would judge it, not by how big their home TV market is. RU is good for the B1G not because of a large RU following in the NYC DMA, but because there is a ton of B1G followers in the NYC DMA.
 
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Continue? Nobody has gotten whittled away yet.

These aren't corporations. They aren't going to make a move to make $5 million more in 2017 and have to cut $10 million in 2019.

The employees don't have equity to dump. They don't have to answer to shareholders.

If you've paying attention I have no idea how you could have it so wrong.

Nobody wants to play in a champions league version of college sports. The coaches and athletic directors get paid for going 10-2 against the Wakes. They get fired losing to Texas and Oklahoma.
UCONN, CINCY, USF. Whittled.
You write as if CR is rational. Anything can happen if there are dollars being left on the table and there are. We have no idea what will happen and I won't be surprised when something very drastic happens, whatever it might be. As for being wrong, let me know when anyone on these boards is proven right or wrong.
 

whaler11

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UCONN, CINCY, USF. Whittled.
You write as if CR is rational. Anything can happen if there are dollars being left on the table and there are. We have no idea what will happen and I won't be surprised when something very drastic happens, whatever it might be. As for being wrong, let me know when anyone on these boards is proven right or wrong.

They weren't whittled. They were never in.

CR isn't always rational - that's why it's silly to compare it to corporations. You seem to understand short term dollars are left on the table... it's because there are motivations beyond immedate revenue.

Other than some of what the ACC has done - everything makes perfect rational sense for both the schools that moved and the leagues that took them. Just because some of it was unpredictible doesn't mean it isn't rational.
 

CL82

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RU is good for the B1G not because of a large RU following in the NYC DMA, but because RU met the physical presence test in the NYC DMA and there is a ton of B1G followers in the NYC DMA.
I added language that was implied in your statement, but I think that's it in a nutshell Subba.
 
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LOL. You don't think there is a point where further expansion leads to diminishing returns?

You haven't noticed that the entity that has supported the rights increasing has stopped spending?

The Big Ten can wait 6 years and pick the ripest fruit if they so choose. Why would they compound the risk of what is going on in the cable industry until they know what their next contract is going to look like.

Why would they bother fighting GORs on the schools they want when they expire at the same time their contract ends?

You're missing the bigger picture.

There's been no ceiling on a few components of big time sports. The contracts are getting bigger. You narrow the source of revenue to a limited network or 2. The Pro leagues are burgeoning in other ways. This is all very predictable & the B1G rights negotiations prove the point. They will do what they want. It won't be 14 & stop ... I suspect several moves. Before your 6 year point.

For 100 of the 130 Programs with D1 football it's nervous time.
 
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