CAN UCONN FINISH IN THE TOP EIGHT ? | The Boneyard

CAN UCONN FINISH IN THE TOP EIGHT ?

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Anyone know if UConn can finish in the top eight of HE with three games to go? Do they have to win all three games and get some help? Can they win two and tie one etc...? Anyone ??
 
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I think the team is just getting tired, a full season slate in Hockey East is a challenge for any newcomer.
 
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Anyone know if UConn can finish in the top eight of HE with three games to go? Do they have to win all three games and get some help? Can they win two and tie one etc...? Anyone ??
They definitely still have a shot at finishing in the top 8....I think they need to win 2 of 3 though.
 
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This analysis was posted at the end of the Northeastern thread:
UConn has a favorable schedule remaining. UNH is struggling this year, and UMass-Amherst is...UMass-Amherst. Win two of three, and we are in a good place to get a first-round home series (not bad at all for our first year).

Seriously, UConn is four points (i.e. two wins) out of fourth place, and wins the tiebreaker with Maine for 8th currently (though the Black Bears have a game in hand. Fourth is unreachable due to circumstances, but finishing between 5-8 is not unreasonable.

22 points is the potential ceiling for UConn. Fifth place is also the potential ceiling, but winning all their remaining games could still leave them in ninth.

They can't beat Boston U or Boston College on points. Third place is ALSO unreachable, for two reasons:
1) UConn loses the current tiebreaker to UMass-Lowell, due to an 0-1-1 head to head record.
2) In order for UML to finish with 22 points, UML cannot win any more games. That means surrendering four points to UVM, giving the Catamounts 23, one ahead of UConn.

Fourth place is not possible because:
1) UConn must win all remaining games.
2a) Providence cannot win or tie any games.
2b) Because that would surrender four points to Maine, Maine cannot get any more than two points against BU (UConn wins the tiebreaker).
3a) Northeastern can only take one point in their remaining four games (i.e must be three losses and one tie, or four losses).
3b) That would ALSO surrender at least three points to Maine, who would have either 23 or 24.

Fifth place is possible, but not likely; UConn can get some help here from fourth-place Providence if they beat Maine at least once.
1) UConn must win all remaining games.
2) Northeastern cannot gain any more than one point.
3) Notre Dame cannot gain any more than one point.
4) Maine can gain, at most, six points out of their remaining eight (they have to beat Northeastern twice, and can either tie twice or win once against Providence, to help UConn).
5) UVM cannot gain more than two points out of their remaining eight (against Merrimack and UML; Merrimack winning here doesn't hurt because as long as UConn sweeps their remainder, the Warriors cannot catch them).

If only one of 2-5 above is false, UConn can take sixth (they'll either lose on a tiebreaker, or simply fall one or two points shy). Northeastern doing so is the best case for us, because as long as they beat Maine once, UConn will always finish higher than UMO.

The worst case scenario for UConn winning all their remaining games is this:
1) Northeastern wins one game against BU, and loses both matches to Maine.
2) Notre Dame wins at least one game against BC or BU.
3) UVM gets three points against Merrimack and/or UVM.
4) Maine beats Providence twice.

This leaves UConn ninth, with 22 points, and facing any of Northeastern, UVM, or Notre Dame on the road in the first round.

Well except I made a goofup that's in the end irrelevant.
UConn does not lose a tiebreak with UML on head to head; the two teams are tied 1-1. They would lose the tiebreak on total conference wins; UML has ten and the most UConn can get is nine.
 
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The fact that we lose so many tiebreaks is a big problem too. It means we are more reliant on specific results occurring down the stretch, such that we could win all our remaining games and still finish in the bottom third. We can only gain 3 potential tiebreak wins: we hold it with Maine, and can gain it from Merrimack and UNH (and don't need it from UMA).

For the record: Hockey East's tiebreakers are, in order of importance:
0) Points: This isn't a tiebreaker, just to establish that points are the primary vehicle for league standings. Also to say that regardless of what happens in the 2/27 game against UMass-Amherst, they cannot gain enough league points to pass us.
1) Head to head record (UConn Win: Maine; Loss: Providence, Northeastern, Notre Dame, Vermont, Boston U.; Tie: UMass-Lowell, Merrimack, Boston College; Undecided: UNH, UMass-Amherst (who can't pass us in league points))
2) Most conference wins (i.e. since points are awarded for ties, of two teams with identical point totals, the team with more wins is theoretically superior). Of the three tiebreakers UConn has that get this far: we can't reach either BC or UML, and we can lose it to Merrimack. We could also lose it to UNH, and also in theory UMass-Amherst (but since UMA cannot tie us in points, it's irrelevant).
3a-j) Best record against the other teams in the league, in order of finish. The only teams we can need this tiebreak against are Merrimack and UNH. Fortunately for UConn, however, if we did have those tiebreaks go this far, we hold them due to a superior record against the league's #1 team, BC (we were 1-1-0 against the Eagles; Merrimack was swept, and UNH is 0-1-1). That being said, in order to be forced into a standings tie with UNH or Merrimack, there are very few scenarios that don't also result in those teams having more wins than us, rendering the fact that we would win this tiebreaker against those two teams almost a purely theoretical curiosity.
4) Coin flip. It is so improbable that it gets here that it's barely worth mentioning. Like, literally, the two teams would have to (a) tie in league points, (b) have split their head to head series with each other, and (c) have had exactly the same set of results against every other team (so that they have exactly the same number of league wins as well).
 

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To Our Hockey Season Ticket Holders –



Thank you for your support as a season ticket holder during our first season in the Hockey East Conference! Our fans have been instrumental in our success this year. With the regular season coming to a close later this month, we hope that the same passion and support carries over into the postseason.



Hockey East Tournament Info:

  • UConn Men’s Ice Hockey currently sits tied for 8th in the Conference.
  • Tournament play awards a first round BYE to seeds 1-4
  • A best-of-three series at their home ice is awarded to seeds 5-8 (against seeds 9-12)


Should we maintain our current position in the standings at the end of the regular season (i.e. a 5-8 seed), UConn Hockey will host a best-of-three series at the XL Center.



Game 1 – Friday, March 6th (7pm)

Game 2 – Saturday, March 7th (7:30pm)

Game 3 (if necessary) – Sunday, March 8th (4:30pm)



Season ticket holders interested in purchasing tickets for the Hockey East tournament opening round may do so now. To reserve your season ticket location for the opening round, please follow the steps below.



  1. CLICK HERE and login to your account.
  2. Select the application ‘Hockey East Tournament Opening Round’.
  3. The package price is $30 per seat for adults and $20 per seat for youth ($15/$10 per game for the first two guaranteed games). Should a third game be necessary, that game will be provided to season ticket holders at no extra cost.
  4. Please note that while you are submitting payment, tickets will not be sent and your credit card will not be charged until UConn is confirmed to host an opening round, best-of-three series.


If you wish to order additional tickets (more than you hold during the season) or have questions about the purchasing process, please contact the UConn Ticket Office at 877 AT-UCONN (288-2666) Monday – Friday, 9am to 4:30pm.



GO HUSKIES!

UC-PAC-TEMPLATE-2-Column_15.gif

© 2014 UConn Athletics | All rights reserved
University of Connecticut, Division of Athletics - 2095 Hillside Road, Unit 1173 Storrs, Connecticut, 06269-1173
 
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UConn can currently finish anywhere from 5th to 11th. The biggest problem right now is everyone else has four games left where UConn only has three.

Read more here: http://board.uscho.com/showthread.p...4-15-edition&p=6101850&viewfull=1#post6101850
The old saying - One game at a time holds true for the UConn Hockey Team. Hopefully the teams comes out on Friday night and plays every shift like it is there last and then after the dust settles Friday night they come out with a W which would make Saturdays game even more exciting to watch on NESN
 
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So if we finish in 8th games 1-2 would be @XL?

Yes.

The third game, should it become necessary, will ALSO be at XL.

The Hockey East playoff format follows the one the ECAC uses, as well as the one the CCHA used before the league joined the NCAA invisible.

The first round will feature best of three series at the home arenas of the teams that finish 5-8. 5th place will host 12th place, 6th hosting 11th, 7th hosting 10th, and 8th hosting 9th.

The teams that advance will be reseeded and slotted to play another best of three the next weekend, hosted by the four teams that finish 1-4.

Current standings would give us the following series:
Weekend #1:
#12 Amherst vs. #5 Northeastern @ Matthews
#11 Merrimack vs. #6 Notre Dame @ Compton
#10 UNH vs. #7 Vermont @ Gutterson
#9 Maine vs. #8 UConn @ XL Center

Weekend #2 (using RPI to determine the advancing teams for demonstrative purposes, since it yields one "upset"):

#5 Northeastern vs. #4 Providence @ Schneider
#7 Vermont vs. #3 Lowell @ Tsongas
#8 UConn vs. #2 Boston College @ Conte
#11 Merrimack vs. #1 Boston U. @ Conte

The remaining teams then advance to the league championship in Boston, and are reseeded again so highest plays lowest. By RPI again, the semifinals are Boston U vs. Vermont, and BC vs. Providence.
 
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Oh wow I had no idea every game in the best of 3 goes to the higher seed. I stupidly assumed they only got 2/3 home games.
 
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Oh wow I had no idea every game in the best of 3 goes to the higher seed. I stupidly assumed they only got 2/3 home games.
Nope first two best of 3 rounds are all at higher seed home ice.
Just based on educated guessing at 1st round home ice chances:
6 points = Assured
4-5 points = Very good chance
3 points = 50/50
2 points = low chance, would need lots of help
0-1 = Forget about it
 

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Yes.

The third game, should it become necessary, will ALSO be at XL.

The Hockey East playoff format follows the one the ECAC uses, as well as the one the CCHA used before the league joined the NCAA invisible.

The first round will feature best of three series at the home arenas of the teams that finish 5-8. 5th place will host 12th place, 6th hosting 11th, 7th hosting 10th, and 8th hosting 9th.

The teams that advance will be reseeded and slotted to play another best of three the next weekend, hosted by the four teams that finish 1-4.

Current standings would give us the following series:
Weekend #1:
#12 Amherst vs. #5 Northeastern @ Matthews
#11 Merrimack vs. #6 Notre Dame @ Compton
#10 UNH vs. #7 Vermont @ Gutterson
#9 Maine vs. #8 UConn @ XL Center

Weekend #2 (using RPI to determine the advancing teams for demonstrative purposes, since it yields one "upset"):

#5 Northeastern vs. #4 Providence @ Schneider
#7 Vermont vs. #3 Lowell @ Tsongas
#8 UConn vs. #2 Boston College @ Conte
#11 Merrimack vs. #1 Boston U. @ Conte

The remaining teams then advance to the league championship in Boston, and are reseeded again so highest plays lowest. By RPI again, the semifinals are Boston U vs. Vermont, and BC vs. Providence.

Counting my chickens WAY before they hatch...can anyone say Road Trip? Would love to turn Conte into UCONN North that weekend if that were to happen.
 
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Counting my chickens WAY before they hatch...can anyone say Road Trip? Would love to turn Conte into UCONN North that weekend if that were to happen.
Damn Dooley...you just put the jinx on the rest of the hockey season...LMFAO!!!
 
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Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I know you all are new to this Hockey East thing, but this is inexcusable. :p

Oh FFS I forgot to switch that when I accidentally made BC the #1 seed. I apologize for the grave insult done to the Terriers. That should of course read Agganis.
 
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Oh wow I had no idea every game in the best of 3 goes to the higher seed. I stupidly assumed they only got 2/3 home games.

Nope. Host gets all three games if they play all three.

In Hockey East it's not so bad to do a 1-1-1 format (Notre Dame the exception), but that would be spectacularly awful for the WCHA (imagine an Alabama-Huntsville and UAlaska series!)
 
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Oh FFS I forgot to switch that when I accidentally made BC the #1 seed. I apologize for the grave insult done to the Terriers. That should of course read Agganis.
None taken, I knew it was a mistake. :) The 1-1-1 would be too hard, too much travel. Basically becomes impossible to do a series with Vermont and Maine. And with the wonky New England weather, especially up there, the risk of a team not being able to get in and out of town is way too high. At least if they're there, or leaving, for three games, they can get in early and stay/play through the storm. It's not ideal, but in the past it's turned out to really not have a major effect. Lower seeds winning the 3-game series happens quite frequently. And the vast majority of these QF series occur over Spring Break, so they're notoriously poorly attended way across the board, even in other conferences around the country. I'm fairly sure the only HE school that sold out a QF game or series in recent years was Merrimack, and that's only because their capacity is so damn low. None of the powerhouse HE schools ever sniff selling out a QF game, ever. BU played one at ND last year, there weren't more than 3K in the arena.

That said, if UConn can grab a top 8 spot, I'd expect them to sell well, based on the momentum surrounding the program, the reception by the fans, and the notion of hosting a playoff series, even if it'd likely be against a relatively weak opponent. It won't be UMass, UConn won't make the 5 spot, probably on the order of Maine, Merrimack, or UNH. Nonetheless, UConn finishing in the top 8 and getting a home ice series in its first year of HE would be an extraordinary achievement for the program, especially if they can pull off the wins.
 

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Anyone know if UConn can finish in the top eight of HE with three games to go? Do they have to win all three games and get some help? Can they win two and tie one etc...? Anyone ??

Please don't use all caps - it's difficult to read.
 
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T-8. Connecticut (16 points)
Highest probable finish: Seventh — By virtue of tying BU, UConn holds a tiebreaker over Vermont, so with three points in three games, the Huskies theoretically could get up to seventh. But five points would be the minimum to get any higher (Notre Dame and Northeastern both have tiebreakers over UConn). A lot would have to go right, and everyone UConn is chasing has a game in hand.
Likely finish: Eighth — I think the Huskies get the Ice Bus across the finish line for a home playoff series. Which, in and of itself, would be a great achievement. Still, they don’t control their own destiny. At bare minimum, the Huskies need a split against UNH this weekend. After that, keep in mind: UConn owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Maine.
Lowest probable finish: 10th — Having one fewer game to play could be an issue, and UNH could take advantage, especially in their series this coming weekend.


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/hockey-east-blog/2015/02/17/heres-how-the-final-two-weeks-can-impact-hockey-east-playoff-positioning/#ixzz3S8yPd9P1

Friday is an absolute must win for home ice. If not, UNH is a lock to surpass UConn for a spot.
 
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