Brett McMurphy says expansion stops once UofL to the Big 12 and the Big East takes the crumbs

Basically he states that the desire to expand by the Pac 12, Big 10 and ACC will have passed for a "long while.". He thinks the only way the conferences expand is if Notre Dame decides to join/switch conferences.

He is also unequivocal: When the Big 12 expands, UofL will be the 11th team. Only caveat, as tied in above, if ND decides to bring in its olympic sports, or they are in for all sports.

So, while it is only his opinion, he obviously has proximity to the relevant stakeholders, and UConn might as well get used to Memphis, Houston, UCF as our new rivals.

http://eye-on-collegefootball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/24156338/35032425

The timeframe for the next expansion domino is not inherently predictable. SEC adding TAMU wasn't. ACC adding Pitt and Cuse wasn't. Shoot, even the BE adding TCU or now Boise/SDSU really weren't predictable moves. U of L and one other school to the B12 is likely. What happens next will probably come out of left field.

This is about maximizing revenue. The other conferences cannot maximize their revenue if they leave a basketball league and a football league that on paper are better or the same. Yeah we are losing some names but we are bringing in some good programs competition wise for quality TV games even if we hate the travel and lack of rivalries. One way or another they are going to deal a death blow to the Big East so they can all split that TV time and revenue. Might not happen this year or next but it's the logical next step. It would be foolish of them to let the New New Big East have time to build up credibility.

This "report" isn't anything new. It's simply a rehashof thoughts previously circulated. Must have been a slow newsday & McMurphy was up against a deadline. Louisville has been pining for the Big XII ever since Mizzou announced its intentions to leave. Bevo is the impediment blocking their way. If that changes, chaos once again rears its ugly head.

wishful thinking on his part

why on earth would the Cards to the B12 to 11 mean the end of anything? Isa thinks they need at least 1 more themselves

and does TX all of a sudden give up their desire to make more money? or OK?

and how does the Cards to the B12 mean the SEC no longer wants a couple of ACC teams?

the dots just don't connect, IMHO

From what I've read and heard, with connecting the dots I highly doubt Louisville ends up in the B12. The B12 seems to have much bigger fish on it's radar and Louisville just doesn't project to add enough value to expand with.

Right now, why does the SEC need to expand at all? They are the dominant FB league, have decent enough BB and make gobs of money per school. There has been no sign of the SEC wanting any of the prime time ACC teams (FSU, Clemson or VT). The SEC has said they do not want to add teams in existing markets which means they would need to look to North Carolina, Virgina and MD. UNC and NC State are not going to leave the ACC (Duke and Wake are not even worth the discussion since FB is the expansion sport). The ACC and all the North Carolina schools are too interwoven and the schools all believe that BB is king. Giving up their cherished tobacco road games is not happening. UVA and VT, UVA just is not an acceptable FB school for the SEC and VT thanks to political maneuvering is bonded to UVA for eternity. MD might take the bait but they are not that desirable as an SEC school and would be the northern outpost. If the SEC expands, they are going west, not north along the Atlantic. No ACC team will bring any enhancement in value. Only TX or OK will do that.

And I am not a believer that 16 teams is a magic number. 14 is probably too big for FB too except that it makes scheduling 9 league games easier which is the item increasing TV rights/revenue. For BB, 16 teams sucks. You lose too many home and homes with teams you want to see. At 14, at least you can play everyone once and pick up a few more annual 2 game series. 12 is still the best number if you want the FB championship game that is a money maker despite poor attendance issues in some leagues. Makes BB scheduling so much easier.

Conference shifting/expansion doesn't stop until there is a true playoff to determine a national champion in football. Television forces and maximizing broadcasting revenue will continue to drive shifting and movement on a regular basis, as it's done for the past 20+ years. Predicting when and how it will happen....the only people that can do that, are the people that actually sit in the television executive board rooms, and in the administrative and athletic offices of any university.

The argument against a playoff, for so long, for so many, is that it's too many games for players. It cuts into the academic calendar.

It's a load of hooey. It's really about the cartels not wanting to give up their hold on the price fixing market.

Every team that makes the post season now plays at least 13 games. 14 games if they've played a conference championship game. That's what 60+ programs a year?


A 16 team format which include EVERY 1-A conference champion, and a few committee selected at-larges, would play a total of 15 games to determine a national champion on the field of play, would involve only 8 programs out of th 120+ in the country playing more than they already do.

16 teams would play at least 13 games, maybe 14 (depending on whether or not conferences would continue the championship games).

8 teams would play 14 (15) games.

4 teams would play 15(16) games

2 teams would play their 16th (17th) game of a season for national championship.

There are 18 weeks regularly on a calendar b/w Sept.1 and first weekend of January.

You could run an invitational bowl system along side the playoffs in December.

Fixed. He meant 12th team. Until they find #11 there will be no #12. They could annex #11 now with the announcements that WVU, A&M and Missouri are settled. That would be the smart thing to do if they were sold on Louisville as #11.

He's right about one thing: there will be a period of digestigon before conferences look to open contracts again.

There aren't many markets out there that aren't dilutive. If UConn was in Jersey it would be a done deal. Right team for the right market.

This last round of expansion was done in anticipation of a playoff. I agree with McMurphy. Music has stopped, and while we have a chair, it sucks. There won't be another round of expansion, and there is nothing anyone on this board can do about it but suck it up and support the Huskies.

I never trusted McMurphy. I think if you want the inside scoop, you have to go straight to Chief, but he ain't talking. I know McMurphy is a voice of sanity sometimes (especially since so much of what he says is related to the dictatorial craziness coming out of Ratchet) but if you want to know the inside scoop as to whether some will get out of this insane asylum, you gotta take hints from the Chief. For the last several years, it's felt like Cheswick has been running this gathering of oddballs.

In the podcast he is plain and matter of fact about Louisville. As if it's a done deal. Since some of his top sources are inside the Big East leadership, his knowledge of what the Big Easr thinks is probably the best out there, even better than McNamara at the Prov Journal. I don't seem to remember any inside information from him re the ACC, probably because the ACC hasn't been active once they poached SU and Pitt.

It does seem that the pipe dream of the Big 12 getting Notre Dame is real. However they have reconstituted the Big East for their interests. So long as a playoff doesn't involve conference championships only, they go nowhere.

Try contemplating that after a big meal.

McMurphy is wrong, raids on the Big East or Football schools desiring to leave the BE at the drop of a hat will stop once the crazy alliance of catholic basketball schools and big time football schools comes to an end. I think the next domino and maybe the final domino is UCONN leaving for the ACC or B10, if and when that happens the league really could fold. Once UCONN leaves then Notre Dame would have no choice but to say see ya and RU would follow. I'm convinced that UCONN's new AD and Herbst will engineer this within the year. Privately both view Mike Tranghese as Mr Rodgers and Marinatto as Bozo the Clown.

bigger fish? like what? not disagreeing, just not up to speed enough on the goings-on in the expansion "race". thanks...