Big 12 data suggests expansion increases CFP chances

[jpm25]

Big 12 data: Expansion vital to boost CFP hopes

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Cincinnati insider MSMoose saying that the Big 12 consultant said that 14 was the right number. Who knows?

 

[jostar1]

MSMoose said... (original post)Appears 14 would be the lucky number based on 40,000 scenarios ran by Navigate Research.

And how would you have that information?

Same person who posted this;

Navigate Research ‏@Navigate_Res Apr 17

Navigate projection: NCAA’s top 25 athletics programs can expect revenue to grow by 116% in the next 10 years. #sportsbiz #ncaa
1 retweet 4 likes

So Moose you think the magic number is 14. Most likely they will go to 14 and not 12?

From what I have seen the financial numbers for a network at 12 aren't enough, has to be 14 good markets for revenue purposes. Of interest as well as how do you setup two divisions with 12, which are acceptable?

 

[whaler11]

There is just no way in hell that the third and fourth teams available to the Big 12 right now would turn an unviable 12 team network into a viable 14 team network.

14 works but 12 doesn't. Sure thing.

Unless they are talking about other P5 teams. In that case just LOL at the whole concept.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is just no way in hell that the third and fourth teams available to the Big 12 right now would turn an unviable 12 team network into a viable 14 team network.

14 works but 12 doesn't. Sure thing.

Unless they are talking about other P5 teams. In that case just LOL at the whole concept.

I think a case could be made that there are several G5 schools that are more valuable than several of the Big 12 schools if the Big 12 was to start a conference from scratch. Or, a case could be made that, based on the addition of Rutgers, the Big 10 schools are the only schools that TV wants to pay for at all, and the rest of college athletics will have to play for free eventually.

Given the relative value of TV rights agreements, I think conference realignment has moved well past logic or financial analysis, and is just making it up as it goes along.

 

[Chin Diesel]

I still think the Big12 has to get in to Florida. The sooner the better.

I don't know if FSU is tenable any time within the next decade.

Go to 14, take UConn, Cincy, USF and UCF.

You take both of them to maximize the I-4 corridor, provide more Eastern Time Zone games, ensures more games played in-state to help with recruiting.

Individually USF and UCF aren't enough. Combined they probably aren't a good enough value. But they're closer to breaking even as a pair than either one is as an individual. As a pair the explicit cost/benefit is short but close enough that implicit cost/benefit makes it a push.

 

[whaler11]

I think a case could be made that there are several G5 schools that are more valuable than several of the Big 12 schools if the Big 12 was to start a conference from scratch. Or, a case could be made that, based on the addition of Rutgers, the Big 10 schools are the only schools that TV wants to pay for at all, and the rest of college athletics will have to play for free eventually.

Given the relative value of TV rights agreements, I think conference realignment has moved well past logic or financial analysis, and is just making it up as it goes along.

You are applying pieces of the puzzle that don't have anything to do with the actual value of the schools.

For example, part of the reason that Fox spent so much on half the Big 10 T1 rights is they are trying to save their network and they smell some blood in the water with ESPN. Things aren't happening in a vaccum. The timing and length of the contract have a lot to do with the dollar amount.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You are applying pieces of the puzzle that don't have anything to do with the actual value of the schools.

For example, part of the reason that Fox spent so much on half the Big 10 T1 rights is they are trying to save their network and they smell some blood in the water with ESPN. Things aren't happening in a vaccum. The timing and length of the contract have a lot to do with the dollar amount.

The market is telling us that:

Rutgers athletics > AAC + CUSA + MWC + Sun Belt

If you want to read some logic into that, go right ahead.

 

[noeynox]

You are applying pieces of the puzzle that don't have anything to do with the actual value of the schools.

For example, part of the reason that Fox spent so much on half the Big 10 T1 rights is they are trying to save their network and they smell some blood in the water with ESPN. Things aren't happening in a vaccum. The timing and length of the contract have a lot to do with the dollar amount.

I really think Fox is being really smart here and their people deserve a lot of credit. ESPN was charging cable providers an insane amount for their channels cord cutting has to be hurting them more than anyone else at the moment because of the right fees they're on the hook for. They knew if they waited it out some of the marquee content would come to them. They get a lot of sheet for copying ESPN, but this seems to be one thing they had their finger on way ahead of time. And the short term (relatively) deals they are signing are not back breakers.

 

[SubbaBub]

If I'm honest with myself and I'm the B12, I ask if FSU is willing to jump. If yes then I invite either Clemson or Miami to get to 12 or both plus Louisville to get to 14.

I don't think the B12 power brokers GAF about NYC or the northeast market.

The ACC should then invite UCONN and Cinci to get back to 12. USF and UCF have no real value to the ACC, but I'm sure someone will convince them that they do for recruiting purposes.

The only problem would be does the rest of the ACC core head for the B1G and SEC.

 

[upstater]

If I'm honest with myself and I'm the B12, I ask if FSU is willing to jump. If yes then I invite either Clemson or Miami to get to 12 or both plus Louisville to get to 14.

I don't think the B12 power brokers GAF about NYC or the northeast market.

The ACC should then invite UCONN and Cinci to get back to 12. USF and UCF have no real value to the ACC, but I'm sure someone will convince them that they do for recruiting purposes.

The only problem would be does the rest of the ACC core head for the B1G and SEC.

The problem here is that while the ACC has a lot of private school and small podunk town dead weight, they do actually occupy a lot of prime territory (eyeballs and recruiting) in the southeast. Virginia and the Carolinas is nothing to sneeze at. Florida too.

I question their reach in Georgia however, and DC. They completely blew it in the northeast in a way that I can't understand. I suppose it is possible that FSU would throw in with Texas, knowing it is really only losing the market strength of the Carolinas and Virginia.

Holy cow, as I'm writing this, I managed to convince myself that the B12 is actually in a much better position than the ACC, and I started with the opposite intention.

You are right SubbaBub. FSU would be smart to throw in with the B12 and Texas.

 

[CL82]

The market is telling us that:

Rutgers athletics > AAC + CUSA + MWC + Sun Belt

If you want to read some logic into that, go right ahead.

Or is the market telling us that the NYC DMA > AAC + CUSA + MWC + Sun Belt? That seems to be a more logical conclusion, and if correct, bodes very well for UConn.

 

[Dooley]

The problem here is that while the ACC has a lot of private school and small podunk town dead weight, they do actually occupy a lot of prime territory (eyeballs and recruiting) in the southeast. Virginia and the Carolinas is nothing to sneeze at. Florida too.

I question their reach in Georgia however, and DC. They completely blew it in the northeast in a way that I can't understand. I suppose it is possible that FSU would throw in with Texas, knowing it is really only losing the market strength of the Carolinas and Virginia.

Holy cow, as I'm writing this, I managed to convince myself that the B12 is actually in a much better position than the ACC, and I started with the opposite intention.

You are right SubbaBub. FSU would be smart to throw in with the B12 and Texas.

Agreed. The ACC has way too many small privates with very marginal athletic success in their conference. When those teams struggle, like WF and BC have in recent years, it REALLY hurts the conference. There is barely interest when those teams are good. But when they are bad, they might as well play FCS level sports. My guess is that this weighs heavily in their inability to secure a conference network as promised.

I think if the B12 were smart, they would add UConn and BYU/Cincinnati to get to 12. Get the wheels in motion on a network and then lure some combination of FSU/Clemson/Louisville/Miami/Pitt/Syracuse (whoever can't hitch a ride on the SS B1G or SEC). Markets, football, basketball, and effectively crushing the ACC competition....all in one giant swoop.

 

[Dooley]

Or is the market telling us that the NYC DMA > AAC + CUSA + MWC + Sun Belt? That seems to be a more logical conclusion, and if correct, bodes very well for UConn.

Beat me to it. It has nothing to do with Rutgers athletics. It has EVERYTHING to do with Rutgers location, location, location.

 

[SubbaBub]

All four schools I mention are a better fit in the B12 than ACC for a lot of reasons. The problem of course is Texas. No school with another option would ever want to associate themselves with their drama.

While Tobacco Road might dominate the ACC, it's nothing like Texas and the other schools, especially the FB powers do have a say in matters. Heck, they even listened to BC at one point.

The curious question is would the rest of the ACC hang if they lost the FL schools and Clemson? They'd let UL go without a mention. On paper, it isnstill just as strong a conference if the remaining teams pick up the FB slack. They would be in a better spot than the old BE, but have a few of the same problems. ND for one, and likely a fee schools looking around for a better deal that might ultimately sink the ship.

 

[junglehusky]

The problem here is that while the ACC has a lot of private school and small podunk town dead weight, they do actually occupy a lot of prime territory (eyeballs and recruiting) in the southeast. Virginia and the Carolinas is nothing to sneeze at. Florida too.

I question their reach in Georgia however, and DC. They completely blew it in the northeast in a way that I can't understand. I suppose it is possible that FSU would throw in with Texas, knowing it is really only losing the market strength of the Carolinas and Virginia.

Holy cow, as I'm writing this, I managed to convince myself that the B12 is actually in a much better position than the ACC, and I started with the opposite intention.

You are right SubbaBub. FSU would be smart to throw in with the B12 and Texas.

A month or two ago someone drew up a map of ACC DMA's. Take home message was that while ACC schools have presence in a lot of East Coast States, they don't dominate those states outside of the Carolinas and Va (see: Pitt, Cuse, Clemson, BCU, FSU, UL).

 

[Dooley]

If I'm honest with myself and I'm the B12, I ask if FSU is willing to jump. If yes then I invite either Clemson or Miami to get to 12 or both plus Louisville to get to 14.

I don't think the B12 power brokers GAF about NYC or the northeast market.

The ACC should then invite UCONN and Cinci to get back to 12. USF and UCF have no real value to the ACC, but I'm sure someone will convince them that they do for recruiting purposes.

The only problem would be does the rest of the ACC core head for the B1G and SEC.

I get what you're saying but disagree. If the model is truly moving towards a P4 like it seems to be, then bigger is better. And if you can 1) offer more content to networks while 2) offering said content across multiple time zones, then you have a place at the P4 table. 10% of NYC is more valuable than 50% of Louisville. The B1G understands this and that's why they invited a dumpster fire to their conference...so that their top dogs can get paid. We offer the same thing but provide the added benefit of playing competitive sports sans scandal and chipping in a national championship in the 2nd most popular sport every 4 years or so.

 

[SubbaBub]

Pitt and Cuse only get another life raft if the B12 is heavily into the WV moonshine. They've added nothing to the ACC. The B12 will look at Southern FB schools first because that's what they are. I think they would take Miami to squeeze the SEC along with FSU. Clemson would get the next bid. UL would complete the B12 east.

UT and OU could remain in the same division and they'd be reasonably balanced. Throw Baylor, ISU, and KSU in the East.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Pitt and Cuse only get another life raft if the B12 is heavily into the WV moonshine. They've added nothing to the ACC. The B12 will look at Southern FB schools first because that's what they are. I think they would take Miami to squeeze the SEC along with FSU. Clemson would get the next bid. UL would complete the B12 east.

UT and OU could remain in the same division and they'd be reasonably balanced. Throw Baylor, ISU, and KSU in the East.

Miami gets in because of their history, the southern Florida DMA and potential. But they don't scare anyone any more and their buzz is non-existent.

 

[Charley Horse]

So the news today is splashed with stories quoting Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby as saying a 12-team league (with an eight-game conference schedule and a championship game) is the best model for putting a team in the CFP, and yet this Cincinnati "insider" is claiming 14 is the best.

Obviously, I don't get a vote but I've been rooting for UConn and Cincinnati to be the invitees. Now, I'm beginning to lose my enthusiasm for Cincinnati.

Every fan-base has all kinds of fans but if you read enough fan forums and local journalism, you can kind of get a handle on what kind of people you're dealing with.

For the most part, all of the current Big 12 schools (including arch-nemesis OU and vociferous WVU) have reasonable and intelligent fan-bases.

It wasn't always that way. Two of the four ex-Big 12 teams had an over-abundance of irrational fans frequently stirred to misconceptions by their irresponsible, pot-stirring local media.

Between the continual inaccuracies reported by this UC "insider" (there were others in another thread) and the suppositions reported as news by the Cincinnati Enquirer, I'm beginning to suspect Cincinnati could end up being another one of those colorful fan-bases that could exasperate all of us.

 

[Charley Horse]

Pitt and Cuse only get another life raft if the B12 is heavily into the WV moonshine. They've added nothing to the ACC. The B12 will look at Southern FB schools first because that's what they are. I think they would take Miami to squeeze the SEC along with FSU. Clemson would get the next bid. UL would complete the B12 east.

UT and OU could remain in the same division and they'd be reasonably balanced. Throw Baylor, ISU, and KSU in the East.

I think it would be in the best interest of the conference to split the two anchor-schools into separate divisions and make them permanent cross-divisional rivals.

I also think it's in the best interest of the conference to spread the travel. You can't have the teams in one division flying from Oklahoma to Connecticut to Florida, while all of the teams in the other division get to play most of their games in Texas.

I don't want to get into sorting, but maybe you could pair the teams by historical rivalries and/or geographic proximity, designate each of those pairs as permanent cross-divisional rivals and then drop them into two divisions that both cut across the entire geographic footprint.

 

[whaler11]

The market is telling us that:

Rutgers athletics > AAC + CUSA + MWC + Sun Belt

If you want to read some logic into that, go right ahead.

That isn't how it's negotiated so you can't make that statement.

 

[junglehusky]

Pitt and Cuse only get another life raft if the B12 is heavily into the WV moonshine. They've added nothing to the ACC. The B12 will look at Southern FB schools first because that's what they are. I think they would take Miami to squeeze the SEC along with FSU. Clemson would get the next bid. UL would complete the B12 east.

UT and OU could remain in the same division and they'd be reasonably balanced. Throw Baylor, ISU, and KSU in the East.

Pitt was probably at the top of Boren's list back before the ACC birthed a smoke monster with Swofford's face that killed the Big East. If Boren had had his way, he'd probably have swooped up Pitt, WVU and possibly a couple more out of UConn, Cincinatti, Louisville, USF, Rutgers before the ACC acted. But there was no interest from other B12 schools at the time, primarily because of UT's regime at the time.

 

[31GuardTrap]

I think it would be in the best interest of the conference to split the two anchor-schools into separate divisions and make them permanent cross-divisional rivals.

I also think it's in the best interest of the conference to spread the travel. You can't have the teams in one division flying from Oklahoma to Connecticut to Florida, while all of the teams in the other division get to play most of their games in Texas.

I don't want to get into sorting, but maybe you could pair the teams by historical rivalries and/or geographic proximity, designate each of those pairs as permanent cross-divisional rivals and then drop them into two divisions that both cut across the entire geographic footprint.

I will play this game.....
"assuming 14 schools" I'd like to see something like this...

North Div
Oklahoma
OSU
West Virginia
UConn
UCF
Kansas
K-State

South Div
Texas
TCU
Texas Tech
Baylor
USF
Cincy
Iowa State
*************
1 Annual Cross Div game such as..
OU/TX
WV/Cincy
UConn/UCF or USF

2 rotating cross div games each year
allows for 3 non conf games each yr.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That isn't how it's negotiated so you can't make that statement.

Sorry, I meant to say:

Rutgers + Illinois + Minnesota + Northwestern = Big 12