Analysis and Comments - Game 31 - UConn vs Providence (game 2)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Hard to believe that we are already looking at the last game of the regular season. The first UConn vs Providence game this season resulted in a 44-point victory for UConn (85-41). I believe there will be a small change to Providence's starting line-up this time around. It will result in a very tall starting five for Providence. They will probably start:

1. Olivia Olsen - 6'3"; 2. Marta Morales-Romero - 6'1"; 3. Brynn Farrell - 6'0"; 4. Emily Archibald - 6'0"; 5. Grace Efosa - 5'11".

UConn will play the same line-up:

1. Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3"; 2. Paige Bueckers - 6'0"; 3. Nika Muhl - 5'11"; 4. Ashlynn Shade - 5'10"; 5. KK Arnold 5'9"

What UConn gives up in size they will more than make up with talent.

In the first match-up, there was a sort of mixed bag concerning the results. Providence out-rebounded UConn 45 to 39. UConn forced Providence into 28 turnovers while only committing 8 themselves. UConn was able to get 33 points off turnovers while Providence was only 5 points. UConn was able to get 25 fast-break points while Providence was able to get 3 points off fast breaks. UConn dominated the paint offensively scoring 48 points in the paint to Providence's 16 points. UConn shot a very poor 57.8% from the foul line making only 11-28. Providence didn't shoot too well from the FT line either 50 percent shooting 9-18. UConn had 20 steals while Providence had 2 steals. Brady and Samuels both got 19 minutes in game one. Both teams shot poorly from three: UConn - 22 percent; Providence - 26.7 percent.

UConn had five players in double figures in their first match-up.

Providence averages 58.7 points, 38.5 rebounds, 16.5 assists, 4.5 threes and 19.4 turnovers.
UConn averages 82 points, 38.8 rebounds, 20.0 assists, 7.0 threes and 12.9 turnovers.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Olivia Olsen - 6'3" - Aaliyah Edwards is playing like an All-American and is averaging 18.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and .8 blocks per game. With limited minutes in the first match-up, Aaliyah underperformed her averages. She should see limited minutes in this game as well but it should be enough for her to outperform her opponent's statistics. Olivia averages 14.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.1 steals, and she gets 1.8 blocks per game. I expect that Aaliyah will once again get the better of her opponent. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Brynn Farrell - 6'0" - With the coaching staff imploring Paige to shoot more, with the tournaments right around the corner, and with Paige coming off a much-needed 31-point effort I think we will continue to see Paige looking for her shot more. Paige is playing like the Big East Player of the Year and is currently averaging 20.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Brynn is averaging 10.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Marta Morales-Romero - 6'1" - Nika gives up two inches in this match-up however she is a tenacious on-ball defender who will give Marta a lot of problems. Marta averages 7.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 three-pointer per game. Nika averages 7.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. While these two players are statistically very close...Nika will separate herself from Marta by her on-ball defense and her impact on the game in her ability to distribute the ball to the right players at the right time. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Emily Archibald - 6'0" - I would expect to see Ashlynn have a good bounce-back game against the Friars. Ashlynn didn't have that great a game against Villanova I look for her to be more like herself in this match-up. Ashlynn averages 11.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1/6 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Emily averages 4.3 points, 5.1 rebounds 1.4 assists, 1 steal, and .6 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Grace Efosa 5'11" - Grace did not start against UConn in their first game but she was able to tally 8 points and six rebounds. In the first game, KK spent most of her time defending Laryn Edwards and she was very effective against the Friars. KK tallied 16 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, and 8 steals. KK usually averages 8.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game while Grace averages 12.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. I think KK is capable of handling Grace but I think in this game Grace may statistically outperform KK.
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

BENCH

Providence will bring 28.1 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 11.0 points and 7.2 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played in Providence however, the talent and experience level of UConn will be too much for Providence to overcome. Also, with both Farrell and Efosa having their senior nights will that take an emotional toll during the first quarter of the game? ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

With the talent level being so lop-sided and the coaching staff trying to find minutes for the reserves I don't see Geno and crew letting this one get away from them.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 81
PROVIDENCE - 47

MOV - 34

 

[Longtime fan]

COMMENTS

Hard to believe that we are already looking at the last game of the regular season. The first UConn vs Providence game this season resulted in a 44-point victory for UConn (85-41). I believe there will be a small change to Providence's starting line-up this time around. It will result in a very tall starting five for Providence. They will probably start:

1. Olivia Olsen - 6'3"; 2. Marta Morales-Romero - 6'1"; 3. Brynn Farrell - 6'0"; 4. Emily Archibald - 6'0"; 5. Grace Efosa - 5'11".

UConn will play the same line-up:

1. Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3"; 2. Paige Bueckers - 6'0"; 3. Nika Muhl - 5'11"; 4. Ashlynn Shade - 5'10"; 5. KK Arnold 5'9"

What UConn gives up in size they will more than make up with talent.

In the first match-up, there was a sort of mixed bag concerning the results. Providence out-rebounded UConn 45 to 39. UConn forced Providence into 28 turnovers while only committing 8 themselves. UConn was able to get 33 points off turnovers while Providence was only 5 points. UConn was able to get 25 fast-break points while Providence was able to get 3 points off fast breaks. UConn dominated the paint offensively scoring 48 points in the paint to Providence's 16 points. UConn shot a very poor 57.8% from the foul line making only 11-28. Providence didn't shoot too well from the FT line either 50 percent shooting 9-18. UConn had 20 steals while Providence had 2 steals. Brady and Samuels both got 19 minutes in game one. Both teams shot poorly from three: UConn - 22 percent; Providence - 26.7 percent.

UConn had five players in double figures in their first match-up.

Providence averages 58.7 points, 38.5 rebounds, 16.5 assists, 4.5 threes and 19.4 turnovers.
UConn averages 82 points, 38.8 rebounds, 20.0 assists, 7.0 threes and 12.9 turnovers.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Olivia Olsen - 6'3" - Aaliyah Edwards is playing like an All-American and is averaging 18.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and .8 blocks per game. With limited minutes in the first match-up, Aaliyah underperformed her averages. She should see limited minutes in this game as well but it should be enough for her to outperform her opponent's statistics. Olivia averages 14.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.1 steals, and she gets 1.8 blocks per game. I expect that Aaliyah will once again get the better of her opponent. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Brynn Farrell - 6'0" - With the coaching staff imploring Paige to shoot more, with the tournaments right around the corner, and with Paige coming off a much-needed 31-point effort I think we will continue to see Paige looking for her shot more. Paige is playing like the Big East Player of the Year and is currently averaging 20.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Brynn is averaging 10.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Marta Morales-Romero - 6'1" - Nika gives up two inches in this match-up however she is a tenacious on-ball defender who will give Marta a lot of problems. Marta averages 7.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 three-pointer per game. Nika averages 7.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. While these two players are statistically very close...Nika will separate herself from Marta by her on-ball defense and her impact on the game in her ability to distribute the ball to the right players at the right time. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Emily Archibald - 6'0" - I would expect to see Ashlynn have a good bounce-back game against the Friars. Ashlynn didn't have that great a game against Villanova I look for her to be more like herself in this match-up. Ashlynn averages 11.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1/6 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Emily averages 4.3 points, 5.1 rebounds 1.4 assists, 1 steal, and .6 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Grace Efosa 5'11" - Grace did not start against UConn in their first game but she was able to tally 8 points and six rebounds. In the first game, KK spent most of her time defending Laryn Edwards and she was very effective against the Friars. KK tallied 16 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, and 8 steals. KK usually averages 8.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game while Grace averages 12.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. I think KK is capable of handling Grace but I think in this game Grace may statistically outperform KK.
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

BENCH

Providence will bring 28.1 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 11.0 points and 7.2 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played in Providence however, the talent and experience level of UConn will be too much for Providence to overcome. Also, with both Farrell and Efosa having their senior nights will that take an emotional toll during the first quarter of the game? ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

With the talent level being so lop-sided and the coaching staff trying to find minutes for the reserves I don't see Geno and crew letting this one get away from them.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 81
PROVIDENCE - 47

MOV - 34

Since this game means nothing ( Big east is won; number one seed on BE tournament; no impact on NCAA ranking ), would it not make sense to truly rest our starting five players? I don't mean; take Paige out with 4 minutes remaining the final period, and asking ASH and KK to only play 38 minutes. I mean start Inez; Q and even DeBerry and let them go 40 each. Rotate everyone else.

 

[JoePgh]

Since this game means nothing ( Big east is won; number one seed on BE tournament; no impact on NCAA ranking ), would it not make sense to truly rest our starting five players? I don't mean; take Paige out with 4 minutes remaining the final period, and asking ASH and KK to only play 38 minutes. I mean start Inez; Q and even DeBerry and let them go 40 each. Rotate everyone else.

How can you say "no impact on NCAA ranking"?
A loss to Providence, regardless of the reason or the lineup that was used, would count as a VERY "bad loss" and would surely affect UConn's seeding in the NCAA tournament. Have you noticed what has happened to other highly ranked teams that lost recently to unranked teams who were almost all much better than Providence? I'm referring to tonight's "second reveal" by the selection committee and how it compares to the first reveal.

 

[WiseWillie]

How can you say "no impact on NCAA ranking"?
A loss to Providence, regardless of the reason or the lineup that was used, would count as a VERY "bad loss" and would surely affect UConn's seeding in the NCAA tournament. Have you noticed what has happened to other highly ranked teams that lost recently to unranked teams who were almost all much better than Providence? I'm referring to tonight's "second reveal" by the selection committee and how it compares to the first reveal.

Agree. There is no reason to take the foot off the gas. There is plenty of time for rest of the starting five between the Providence game and the start of play for #1 ranked UConn in the BE Tournament.

 

[MSGRET]

Since this game means nothing ( Big east is won; number one seed on BE tournament; no impact on NCAA ranking ), would it not make sense to truly rest our starting five players? I don't mean; take Paige out with 4 minutes remaining the final period, and asking ASH and KK to only play 38 minutes. I mean start Inez; Q and even DeBerry and let them go 40 each. Rotate everyone else.

Geno can rest them in the 4th quarter after the game is won. If UConn would lose to Providence they may end up going somewhere for the first and second tournament games by falling out of the Top 16.

 

[Geew1992]

Geno can rest them in the 4th quarter after the game is won. If UConn would lose to Providence they may end up going somewhere for the first and second tournament games by falling out of the Top 16.

They also don't play again until next Saturday.

 

[Next 12]

Geno would NEVER risk this final game for some rest. The team and Geno are conditioned to play the whole 40 minutes if necessary . As said above, the 7 days until the play-offs is all that's needed. Another 5-6 players in double figures. I want to see Nika get 10 assists, Paige score 30 points, Aaliyah get 15 rebounds and the future super stars score 15 points each. After we are up by 40, in the 4th quarter let in the subs, all of them. GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent analysis again, @cferraro04. Thanks for this!

Providence’s lineup is big but slow and it cost them dearly last time. They also ran a lot of players in off the bench. I wonder if they’ll play a long bench again. The problem is having Archibald Farrell and Olsen on the floor at once. This leaves a slow defender on Paige and Ash. It also allows Geno to play Ice next to Aaliyah for longer stretches.

We won by 44 last time with Q shooting 0-9. If Q finds the range, even if only for 10 or 15 minutes, it will be bad for Providence. And of course if Ash and Nika hit their 3s this game will be another lopsided one.

 

[Skeets]

Agree. There is no reason to take the foot off the gas. There is plenty of time for rest of the starting five between the Providence game and the start of play for #1 ranked UConn in the BE Tournament.

What did Margaret Thatcher say? Now is not the time to go all wobblily.

 

[Rowdy831]

This lineup is not the kind of big that will challenge UConn. Any team that comes out with one player at 6'3 or better is going to have a long night against UConn especially if they don't matchup on quickness. UConn will come out and take care of business and Geno will not change the way he coaches and players won't be rested until UConn is up 40 with half the 4th quarter to go.

From here on out every team will get plenty of rest between games with the likely exception of the ones playing for conference championships. For UConn the teams in the BE are all very weak and won't give them any problems and they shouldn't have to overwork any players to get the job done.

 

[cferraro04]

Excellent analysis again, @cferraro04. Thanks for this!

Providence’s lineup is big but slow and it cost them dearly last time. They also ran a lot of players in off the bench. I wonder if they’ll play a long bench again. The problem is having Archibald Farrell and Olsen on the floor at once. This leaves a slow defender on Paige and Ash. It also allows Geno to play Ice next to Aaliyah for longer stretches.

We won by 44 last time with Q shooting 0-9. If Q finds the range, even if only for 10 or 15 minutes, it will be bad for Providence. And of course if Ash and Nika hit their 3s this game will be another lopsided one.

Thanks, Bone Dog...can you imagine what a game it would be if Providence was big and athletic...thank God they are not. I also agree since our bench is so short...we need it to start producing if we are going to go anywhere in the NCAAs.