Analysis and Comments - Game 29 - UConn vs DePaul (game 2)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

In the first meeting this season between DePaul and UConn, the Huskies came away with a 37-point victory 88-51. The game played out as I suspected with the Huskies running up a big lead early and then backing off the gas out of Geno's close friendship with Coach Bruno. This game was played in front of the Husky-friendly home crowd at Storrs, CT. What was surprising to me, despite being a graduate-student heavy starting line-up DePaul's resistance to the Husky assault was rather anemic.

Their first game provided Geno with an opportunity to play his bench extensively. Qadence Samuels got 21 minutes, Ice Brady got 20 minutes, Ines Bettencourt got 17 minutes and Amari DeBerry got 11 minutes. The results were to be expected: Qadence had 5 points and five rebounds; Ice Brady while committing 5 turnovers and fouling out of the game got 6 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals, Ines Bettencourt had 2 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, and 3 steals; And, with only 11 minutes of playing time Amari DeBerry managed to get 8 points and 5 rebounds. This was by far our best bench performance since Aubrey Griffin went down to a mid-season injury. After the first half, UConn was up 49 to 21. From there the Huskies never needed to look back outscoring the Blue Demons 21-17 in the 3rd quarter and 18-13 in the 4th despite playing 4 reserves in the second half.

The Blue Demons are 12 and 16 overall and 4 and 11 in conference. DePaul currently has an RPI of 161 and a SOS of 74 with a projected RPI of 167 and a SOS of 83. UConn's RPI currently is 5 and its SOS is 2. UConn is 23-5 overall and 15 and 0 in conference.

DePaul's probable starting line-up will feature 4 graduate students and 1 Sophomore (Anaya Peoples - GR; Jorie Allen - GR; Kaitlyn Gilbert - GR; Michele Sidor - GR; Maeve McErlane - Sophomore). This is a very experienced starting five. They will have the advantage of playing at home and this late in the season I would expect that they will be playing better basketball than what we saw in Storrs on January 20th. However, the same can be said for UConn, after experiencing 5 losses especially their most recent one in South Carolina, and after having a week off to rest and tweak their defense and offense I expect that after dispelling some rust from the week off UConn will be playing their best basketball. Even though this game may be closer and more competitive, I do not expect that UConn will have too much trouble putting DePaul away handily.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Jorie Allen - 6'0" - Jorie is DePaul's only starter who is listed as a front-court player (Forward). At 6'0" she is giving up 3 inches to Aaliyah. Additionally, Aaliyah is playing like an All-American averaging 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. She also contributes 1 block, 1.5 steals, and 2.1 assists per game. Jorie Allen is DePaul's second most productive player averaging 11 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Jorie had a bit of a frustrating day against UConn in their first meeting only scoring 2 points. I expect that Aaliyah will have a big game on Sunday. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Anaya Peoples - 5'11" - This is the marquis match-up of the game. Anaya has had some very big games for DePaul this season. She is averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.6 steals, and 1 block per game. Paige is producing similar stats across the board however, she is doing it against much better competition. Paige is averaging 20.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks. Anaya was held to only 8 points in their first meeting. Anaya is not generally a three-point threat however, Paige is averaging 2.1 three-pointers a game and is capable of hitting 4 or 5 in any given game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Kaitlyn Gilbert - 5'10" - Kaitlyn is a solid basketball player averaging 8.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game...she scored 8 points against UConn in their first meeting. Nika is UConn's spark plug...her presence on the floor is essential to UConn's ability to do what it wants offensively and defensively. No one coming off the bench can duplicate what Nika brings to each game. Nika is averaging 7.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Maeve McErlane - 5'10" - Maeve McErlane had a good game against UConn in January. She scored 15 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal. Most importantly Maeve went off for 5 threes going 5-9. Ashlynn however, also had a great game against DePaul in January. She scored 21 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal while going 2-7 from three-point land. A key stat was that Ashlynn had zero turnovers while Maeve had 6 turnovers.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Michelle Sidor - 5'9" - We have all been chomping at the bit for KK to be more offensively productive. In her first meeting with DePaul, she only tallied 2 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists while committing 3 turnovers. Michelle tallies 7 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal while committing 5 turnovers. Michelle also was able to hit on 1 three ball in 6 attempts. KK averages 8.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.3 steals. Michelle averages 8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and .7 steals per game. Michelle is also averaging 2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - DEPAUL

BENCH

DePaul will bring 28.5 points and 14.6 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 10.9 points and 7.3 rebounds off the bench. AVANTAGE - DEPAUL

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played in Chicago at Wintrust Arena but, the Huskies have too much talent and fire-power and will overcome the disadvantage of playing away from home. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

I love watching Bruno coach...great guy, a great coach but since 2006 UConn has been 23 and 0 when playing DePaul. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 82
DePaul - 63

MOV - 19

 

[The CDR-Ret]

I appreciate your final score, but expect much more out of KK, ICE and Q in this addition @ DePaul, but the MoV will be smaller than the first meeting (I predicted a bigger MoV, than your assessment, however).

Your analysis is outstanding as always! I also appreciate Bruno, particularly his post-game comments.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

If they come out with a 3 blitz and it works this time that could really shake the Huskies. It's pretty much the only thing that will work I think. Then we shift focus to can Paige settle the team and get them humming. How? By shooting Paige dagnabit!

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, @cferraro04! Excellent analysis.

I worry about the Chicago style reffing, and expect Ice to get in foul trouble quickly. This game is another chance for Geno to use his bench liberally, but more importantly to get Ash and KK back into the scoring groove. In particular, I hope to see KK finish a few more drives.

I think you're right to compare Paige to Anaya. But I also think we'll see KK and Ash defending her as much as Paige does. On the other side, I expect Anaya to have to defend Paige, which will be a nice matchup.

As for my hopes and dreams, I hope we get to see a lot of Q. There aren't going to be a whole lot more opportunities for her to get playing time, and this is a game she could do well in. She's a tough matchup for anyone in their lineup.

 

[Skeets]

Thanks again, @cferraro04! Excellent analysis.

I worry about the Chicago style reffing, and expect Ice to get in foul trouble quickly. This game is another chance for Geno to use his bench liberally, but more importantly to get Ash and KK back into the scoring groove. In particular, I hope to see KK finish a few more drives.

I think you're right to compare Paige to Anaya. But I also think we'll see KK and Ash defending her as much as Paige does. On the other side, I expect Anaya to have to defend Paige, which will be a nice matchup.

As for my hopes and dreams, I hope we get to see a lot of Q. There aren't going to be a whole lot more opportunities for her to get playing time, and this is a game she could do well in. She's a tough matchup for anyone in their lineup.

I hope to see KK drive less. Too often she drives into traffic, gets swatted, and ends up on her butt. She's 5'9", not 6'2". On breakaways OK, but when the defense is in a half court set chances are pretty good there's not going to be a clear path to the hoop for a relatively small guard. KK needs to kick it out, or pull up for a mid-range jumper, or hit a 3. Going all the way to the hoop probably worked real well in high school.

 

[Bone Dog]

I hope to see KK drive less. Too often she drives into traffic, gets swatted, and ends up on her butt. She's 5'9", not 6'2". On breakaways OK, but when the defense is in a half court set chances are pretty good there's not going to be a clear path to the hoop for a relatively small guard. KK needs to kick it out, or pull up for a mid-range jumper, or hit a 3. Going all the way to the hoop probably worked real well in high school.

It’s so true, driving the lane worked well for her in HS, and she hasn’t figured out how to make it work at the next level. But I don’t think it’s because of height.

MoJeff was only 5’6” and was a terror in the lane, and more recently Hidalgo is 5’6” and is a major threat to drive and score. Hannah may be a little quicker, but I think KK is quick enough to make it work. I think the real problem is she’s not quite as skilled as Hannah, or MoJeff… yet. Her midrange game is not developed enough to open up the lane for her. And when she does get to the rim, she misses makeable bunnies.

It’s always about having more than one threat. If they don’t have to cover you close enough to challenge a perimeter shot or a midrange shot, you can’t blow by anyone. And if you’re not a threat to blow by anyone, they can challenge your perimeter shot. That’s what MoJeff and Hannah have — they’re very quick, but mainly they’re scoring threats at every level. KK needs to develop her game to that level.

The lesson I take from all this is KK needs to work on every aspect of her offense and the DePaul game is the perfect opportunity for her. I’m including driving the lane and not missing the bunnies she ought to make. And hitting those dribble-stop jumpers she’s capable of, and hitting from the perimeter. She has the potential to do it all.

On a related note, I watched a replay of last year’s tournament game against Baylor in which Azzi and Aubrey took the game in the 3rd quarter. Aubrey was a rebounding menace in that quarter — she might as well have been wearing a cape. Aaliyah had just gotten her 4th foul and had to sit and the situation looked dire. Until Azzi and Aubrey stepped up.

Azzi had just returned from that injury and her shooting touch hadn’t quite returned, probably because her leg didn’t feel strong enough yet. But teams had to respect her perimeter shot simply because there was no telling when she might find the range and light them up. In that third quarter, Azzi took advantage of this and hit several midrange jumpers and drove the lane really well, and eventually hit a couple 3s. I think she scored 14 in the 3rd and the game was effectively over.

 

[omshanti]

I also hope to see KK drive less this game and moving forward. If the lane is there, great. Too many missed layups to count. If KK does drive, kick the ball out. Part of her foul issues are offensive fouls on the drive. Hopefully she learns sooner rather than later, like before the NCAA tournament. This game is an opportunity to work on skills needed moving forward. I’d love to see her knock down some outside shots also. That might open up her game some.

 

[Longtime fan]

COMMENTS

In the first meeting this season between DePaul and UConn, the Huskies came away with a 37-point victory 88-51. The game played out as I suspected with the Huskies running up a big lead early and then backing off the gas out of Geno's close friendship with Coach Bruno. This game was played in front of the Husky-friendly home crowd at Storrs, CT. What was surprising to me, despite being a graduate-student heavy starting line-up DePaul's resistance to the Husky assault was rather anemic.

Their first game provided Geno with an opportunity to play his bench extensively. Qadence Samuels got 21 minutes, Ice Brady got 20 minutes, Ines Bettencourt got 17 minutes and Amari DeBerry got 11 minutes. The results were to be expected: Qadence had 5 points and five rebounds; Ice Brady while committing 5 turnovers and fouling out of the game got 6 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals, Ines Bettencourt had 2 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, and 3 steals; And, with only 11 minutes of playing time Amari DeBerry managed to get 8 points and 5 rebounds. This was by far our best bench performance since Aubrey Griffin went down to a mid-season injury. After the first half, UConn was up 49 to 21. From there the Huskies never needed to look back outscoring the Blue Demons 21-17 in the 3rd quarter and 18-13 in the 4th despite playing 4 reserves in the second half.

The Blue Demons are 12 and 16 overall and 4 and 11 in conference. DePaul currently has an RPI of 161 and a SOS of 74 with a projected RPI of 167 and a SOS of 83. UConn's RPI currently is 5 and its SOS is 2. UConn is 23-5 overall and 15 and 0 in conference.

DePaul's probable starting line-up will feature 4 graduate students and 1 Sophomore (Anaya Peoples - GR; Jorie Allen - GR; Kaitlyn Gilbert - GR; Michele Sidor - GR; Maeve McErlane - Sophomore). This is a very experienced starting five. They will have the advantage of playing at home and this late in the season I would expect that they will be playing better basketball than what we saw in Storrs on January 20th. However, the same can be said for UConn, after experiencing 5 losses especially their most recent one in South Carolina, and after having a week off to rest and tweak their defense and offense I expect that after dispelling some rust from the week off UConn will be playing their best basketball. Even though this game may be closer and more competitive, I do not expect that UConn will have too much trouble putting DePaul away handily.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Jorie Allen - 6'0" - Jorie is DePaul's only starter who is listed as a front-court player (Forward). At 6'0" she is giving up 3 inches to Aaliyah. Additionally, Aaliyah is playing like an All-American averaging 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. She also contributes 1 block, 1.5 steals, and 2.1 assists per game. Jorie Allen is DePaul's second most productive player averaging 11 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Jorie had a bit of a frustrating day against UConn in their first meeting only scoring 2 points. I expect that Aaliyah will have a big game on Sunday. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Anaya Peoples - 5'11" - This is the marquis match-up of the game. Anaya has had some very big games for DePaul this season. She is averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.6 steals, and 1 block per game. Paige is producing similar stats across the board however, she is doing it against much better competition. Paige is averaging 20.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks. Anaya was held to only 8 points in their first meeting. Anaya is not generally a three-point threat however, Paige is averaging 2.1 three-pointers a game and is capable of hitting 4 or 5 in any given game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Kaitlyn Gilbert - 5'10" - Kaitlyn is a solid basketball player averaging 8.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game...she scored 8 points against UConn in their first meeting. Nika is UConn's spark plug...her presence on the floor is essential to UConn's ability to do what it wants offensively and defensively. No one coming off the bench can duplicate what Nika brings to each game. Nika is averaging 7.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Maeve McErlane - 5'10" - Maeve McErlane had a good game against UConn in January. She scored 15 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal. Most importantly Maeve went off for 5 threes going 5-9. Ashlynn however, also had a great game against DePaul in January. She scored 21 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal while going 2-7 from three-point land. A key stat was that Ashlynn had zero turnovers while Maeve had 6 turnovers.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Michelle Sidor - 5'9" - We have all been chomping at the bit for KK to be more offensively productive. In her first meeting with DePaul, she only tallied 2 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists while committing 3 turnovers. Michelle tallies 7 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal while committing 5 turnovers. Michelle also was able to hit on 1 three ball in 6 attempts. KK averages 8.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.3 steals. Michelle averages 8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and .7 steals per game. Michelle is also averaging 2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - DEPAUL

BENCH

DePaul will bring 28.5 points and 14.6 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 10.9 points and 7.3 rebounds off the bench. AVANTAGE - DEPAUL

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played in Chicago at Wintrust Arena but, the Huskies have too much talent and fire-power and will overcome the disadvantage of playing away from home. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

I love watching Bruno coach...great guy, a great coach but since 2006 UConn has been 23 and 0 when playing DePaul. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 82
DePaul - 63

MOV - 19

Somehow you missed a DePaul player named Clark. I think she hit 6 threes today, and may be only a freshman.