I think UConn will end up in the ACC eventually if Notre Dame doesn't. But, if ND doesn't, the ACC is the new Big East. Unfortunately for UConn, it doesn't have a strong TV draw outside it's market, even for basketball. Fans may not realize it, but Hathaway epically screwed the program when he cancelled the series with Notre Dame. You want presence in Manhattan? You want TV appeal that will make conferences do a double-take? Play an annual series with Notre Dame, with every other game in New York City (or w/in its reaches). That seriously was a classic example of putting ego ahead of sense. Of course, UConn didn't realize trouble was brewing on the realignment landscape. But regardless, that is a series that would have landed them in the ACC ahead of Syracuse had they kept it. UConn & Syracuse have very similar valuations. The reason Syracuse went in over UConn is b/c Notre Dame has scheduled a series with them, and they have talked about cancelling one of their Big Ten annual rivalry games to extend it. Syracuse is a carrot. UConn could have been that carrot, but the powers that be thought they were too big to be a carrot. So, now they're stuck in a dying conference that they could have gotten out of.
Interesting. I agree that the ACC is not the shiny happy place that it is made out to be. I also think that Neinas went into the Big 12 as commissioner and really did a good job of stabilizing that conference as far as revenue streams around television are concerned. Which should not come as a surprise if you know anythign about Chuck Neinas and college football broadcasting. I don't think that any of the power players in that conference are going to be happy with West Virginia once they actually get to the real business of athletic competition among all the sports that a 1-A athletic department needs to field. But they're married now, for a good amount of time. I hope that John Marinatto has learned quite a bit in the past 3 years, because he'll need to do a hell of a job at the negotiating table starting in a few months. I also agree that Notre Dame is the keystone holding up the current state of affairs in college football. Notre Dame joins a conference, and things will change dramatically from coast to coast, as long as they remain independant, combined with no TRUE playoff for a national title - involving all 1-A conference champions....the college football landscape will continue to be dictated by the flow of broadcasting revenue contracts, as has been teh case since 1984. I'm curious though, based on what you've written and what you say your insight is into all of this..... - what your opinion is of the Big East conference's ability, starting in 2013, to schedule football games in all four time zones,? Which - clearly - means that Big East football games (and also games in the new merged in discussion of non-AQ BCS programs) can be scheduled and broadcast without overlapping broadcasting windows for marquee matchups. No other current AQ conference, can schedule for broadcasting purposes with that kind of flexibility and potential viewership reach. I see this as a distinct advantage for the big east in television negotiations, and as somethign that will also be desireable for television networks.
It's not that big of a feather in their cap. For starters, in every market, there are more favorable match ups they'll be going up against. Sure, it's nice that there are fewer scheduling conflicts for the Big East. But, any network that would bid on the Big East already has better conferences, with better match ups, locked up. In the EST, they battle the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC. In the CST, they battle the Big XII, SEC, and Big Ten. In the PST, they battle the Pac-12. Beyond that, b/c the BE is so spread out now, they miss out on one of the most important components of any TV contract (w/ regards to college sports)...........regional dominance. In the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, fans watch the other teams in their conference. Georgia fans watch Florida games, Michigan fans watch tOSU, Texas fans watch OU games, and on and on. There is a collective interest in the conference b/c of shared commonality AND regional rivalry. One of the reasons the SEC got such a landmark deal years ago is b/c almost every team in the conference (save for Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Miss State) turn on TVs in states other than their home state & their opponent's home state. The Big XII and Big Ten also have a lot of that (though not as strongly). The Big East may have teams in markets across all 4 time zones, but does anybody in Philadelphia care one iota about San Diego State or Memphis or Central Florida (and vice versa)? Nope. It was a mistake for the BE to spread out. A conference's TV revenue generating power is partly in their national appeal, and partly in their regional dominance. Unfortunately, the Big East doesn't have a single football school that generates virtually any TV draw outside their home state or their opponent's home state other than Boise State. And, Boise State's draw is based more on novelty than genuine fandom. As soon as they have an off season, their additional viewership is gone. So, "spanning the country" has almost no value to a TV contract unless the teams involved generate interest outside their region.
Do you have numbers to back up what you're talking about? Just curious. I completely agree with what your saying BTW about fans watching other games than their own team. It's not going to be normal for UConn football fan to tune into a San Diego State vs. Houston game. At first. I think it will probably catch on quicker than you might think though, as long as it's marketed and broadcasted well. I think that if there would be a poll here among UConn football fans you'd find that the majority of them had zero interest in watching say, a Rutgers vs. Louisville football game 5 years ago. Or espcially a South Florida v. Cincinatti game. I'd bet you'd find a lot of UConn fans around here, and out there, that have tuned into those games on a college football saturday or evening and watched as well as many say Louisivlle football fans, who have never turned into a UConn game prior to 2006, have watched say a UConn v. Rutgers game. What you're talkign about takes time there, and I don't think is that big of a deal. I also understand the big east is going to be going head to head with marquee matchups in other time zones. But that's no different than those current programs across the zones are already doing. A San Diego State or SMU football game scheduled at the same time as a USC or Texas game is going to draw less, irrespective of conference affiliation. But there's the flexibility I'm talking about. If San Diego State is scheduled to play a home game, or Boise has a home game.....that west coast start time can be put anywhere between 12-6pm PST, so as not to conflict with the USC or UCLA or Arizona or Oregon games being played that day......and still be in Prime Time on the east coast and not affect the Big East matchups being broadcast on the east coast earlier in the day... and I guarantee you that if Boise is playing a home game in November, at 3:30pm PST, and there's a UConn v. Temple game being played at 3:30pm EST that has implications on the post season......people on the west coast are watching that UConn v. Temple game at 12:30 local time for them. Just an example...... Conversely, a primetime 3:30pm EST or 8:00 EST game on the east coast, can be broadcast on the west coast. So I disagree that it's a minor thing, and I think it provides the Big EAst with flexibility in scheduling kickoff times that can't be matched by any other conference out there when it comes to avoiding exactly what you're talking about - conflicts in head to head competition for viewership. The NFL has capitalized on being able to schedule football games and avoid the kind of thing you're talking about through all four time zones for many years. The key will be in being able to follow the NFL model, and be able to work with the broadcasting companies to decide what game would be a national broadcast, while the other games are carried regionally. I don't know if Taglibue is still involved with the Big East, but he would be very helpful in negotiations when it comes to that. I posted an article around here somewhere about the cartel behavior of college football broadcasting over the years. That model of creating false demand by restricting access, needs to be broken. Take a look at it.
Memphis and Louisville in their time zone..... Their kickoff times can be scheduled around say a Tennessee game, either forward or back and still be able to reach somewhere in the country in primetime..... What it all really means negatively for the Big East is that home fans, like me, that actually go to the games rather than watch on TV, would have to really get used to not knowing when football games are going to kick, up to a few days prior to game day, and that would probably extend to the entire season, rather than just to what we already experience with conference game kickoff times being held until the week before game day.
The other model - the one that I hope shows up - that the ACC....oops...that ESPN really wants....... involves scheduling around Notre Dame. Notre Dame Notre Dame schedule's their kickoff times whenever they want. The Big East, for all the reasons you state, will need to be in constant motion around scheduling for football to get the best time slots and viewership reaches. But if you can put Notre Dame into the scheduling mix? Now you've got your scheduling focal point. Much like the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL, and a handful of other franchises regularly get the national timeslot, and the rest of the league games are sent out regionally and scheduled around them... the big east, if a deal could somehow be reached that involves Notre Dame scheduling, could do the exact same thing. Just like on NFL game day, you see the next week's broadcasts listed and advertised, with the national games, and then regional ones listed.... The big east could be doing the same thing. Notre Dame is going to get the national broadcast, two other big east games (four other big east teams, can potentially have national broadcasts on any saturday and then the remaining games would go out regionally coast to coast. With 14 teams in the league, that means that every single program would get several....SEVERAL....national broadcasts each season. You think the ACC....oops, excuse....me ESPN.....doesn't want that? Or any other conference? Notre Dame has been an albatross to the Big East conference, even though the conference has provided them the exact kind of shelter they need for their athletic department. It's long overdue, that the conference and Notre Dame starts to do what's right. Notre Dame is now the lead player in Big East expansion decisions - I believe ND has sat at the head of the expansion committee all along. I hope I've got my finger on the pulse of all of this, and if not, God willing, somehow somebody in Providence will get this thought process going.
I've never understood this whole idea about demographic trends. Schools are not increasing admission spots, but the demographic #s are increasing nationwide
I am not a valuations analyst and will take you at your word that you are...and will therefore defer to your experience. Thanks for the knowledge.
And boom goes Carl's "4 timezones to dominance" theory. FTI (If I may call you that... haha)... any insights in to ND's TV deal, and whether or not they stand to make or lose more money by (for example) joining the ACC? To me, perfect world, ND and UConn go to ACC and lock up the whole East Coast.
Notre Dame is driving the ship and NBC is the navigator. Hopefully not the same crew that crashed and abandoned the ship in Italy.
Well, there's no question ND would receive a significant increase in TV revenue if they went to the ACC. The issue with the Domers is they value their independence over money. However, as college athletics evolves, and assuming their program doesn't take giant steps forward in the next 2-3 seasons (as in multiple top 15 finishes), their next contract with NBC will lock them into an annual payout that will put them at a competitive disadvantage with respect to the rest of the major players in BCS conferences. They can't expect donors to annually cover a $10M - $15M shortfall compared to the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, and Big XII. It's the tortoise & the hare argument. It doesn't matter that ND is the fast rabbit. If they get locked into a TV contract that puts them too far behind, the tortoises of college football will pass them. Here's the issue with the ACC though...............the ACC's contract w/ ESPN is for all TV rights: Tier 1, 2, 3. If ND joins, they have to cede control of all of their TV rights to the ACC. So, there is no opportunity to have a national ND Network, which they've been looking into. Other than that, the ACC has all of the pieces. They stretch nearly 2,000 miles across the eastern seaboard. They have a number of current and former Domer rivals: Pitt, GA Tech, Miami, Boston College. And, they are one of, if not the most prestigious conference academically in D1. But, the ACC isn't going to go back on their Tier 3 stance. They already turned down Texas for that very reason. If ND joins a conference in full, the ACC is the leader in the club house...............and by a lot. The dark horse would be the Big XII, simply b/c Swarbrick & Dodds (the ADs) have a very strong relationship, and in terms of national drawing power, they are #1 (Texas) and #2 (Notre Dame). The Big XII is attractive for that reason and their willingness to allow Tier 3 TV rights ownership by their members (the SEC is the only other that allows it as well). But, the Big XII will never be a serious contender to land ND as a full member unless they land 3-4 east coast members. The Big Ten is a complete non-starter. Domers hate the Big Ten........with a passion. H-A-T-E!!! Fans get caught up on the fact that ND plays 3 Big Ten teams annually. But, they're marriages of convenience. Nearly everyone of their fans would love to see Purdue disappear from their schedule forever. And, despite perceptions to the contrary, just barely over half actually care about playing Michigan State or Michigan annually. At an administration (and booster) level, no one's forgotten that the Big Ten rejected ND's attempt to join multiple times due to their Catholic roots. So, in the eyes of the people that matter, the Big Ten would be a last resort. I have zero doubt that w/in 10 years, you'll see ND in a conference. Money, competitive balance, scheduling difficulties (w/ everyone going to 9 conference games per year), recruiting, and competing for NCs are all going to push them that direction. And, since you're probably curious, ND & UConn in the ACC would probably bring in $21M - $26M per year per team (based on today's TV payout market). The one thing that hurts the ACC is their teams don't draw well outside their respective regions. The only exceptions are Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and VA Tech. FSU & Miami are national draws, and Clemson & VA Tech are regional draws (meaning, fans of other teams regularly watch their games). Clemson also has a strong following in the eastern part of the SEC.
Any link from anyone on that? Or is this one of those Ferris Beuller Twitter moments where it is "my cousin's sister's brother's nephew's boyfriend's...."?
Are you serious? 99% of what goes on in college football happens behind closed doors and never sees the light of day. I could talk for a week straight about all of the things that have never seen the light of day in the press; conversations, arrests, under-the-table deals, etc. How do I know what went on? B/c I worked on the valuation for ESPN. Anytime ESPN or CBS are going to make a contract offer to a conference, league, sport, etc......my team is hired to do the valuation. Intermittently I'll work with NBC, and I've never worked with Fox. When "Texas to the Pac-10" rumors started swirling in 2010, it's b/c Texas was seriously at the precipice of jumping to the Pac-10. When "Texas to the Pac-12" rumors ramped up again in 2011, it was ESPN trying to drum up pressure to get the ACC to accept Texas and the LHN. But, if you really must see a "link" to believe it.............. On talks with the Atlantic Coast Conference (after the Texas committed to staying in the Big XII): “We had good conversations with [commissioner] John Swofford. We were very interested in that if things imploded. They were very interested in us. But it’s not going to happen.” ~ Deloss Dodds 9/22/11
Taking everything at face value, is there any difference in valuation of a ND-UConn package to the ACC as opposed to ND-Rutgers? I would hope so, but at this point we are watching half-ass athletic programs like Pitt chosen ahead of us.
How did you miss Texas to the ACC? That was all over the place. The common thought was Texas was using them as a pawn to get the Pac 12 to move, knowing full well the ACC would never allow the LHN, and I believe the Pac 12 didn't have Tier 1-3 rights signed away at that point.
You sound like you know what you are talking about, but could you please explain to me how it is exactly that adding a portion of the Florida market and the relatively inconsequential South Carolina market is going to somehow increase revenueby 20 million per team? I really like your gazelle analogy by the way.
