A look at eight legitimate candidates hoping to hit the Big 12 expansion lottery

[CoastAtlantic]

A look at eight legitimate candidates hoping to hit the Big 12 expansion lottery | SportsDay

As long as people are still spending time on the issue and the Big 12 has just 10 teams, expansion isn't dead. An industry source pegged the chances of adding at least two teams by sometime in the fall at better than 50 percent.

 

[huskeynut]

Nothing we didn't already know.

If Texas says no, its all over for us. Like it or not, the Big12 is Texas and everybody else. Texas only cares about Texas.

 

[don356]

Yep, if we can say one thing for sure, logic and the existing b12 group are mutually exclusive. Analysis is meaningless at this point.

 

[SubbaBub]

Was the author on medical leave for the last 12 months? Seems a bit late to the speculation party.

 

[DoctorWho85]

Nothing we didn't already know.

If Texas says no, its all over for us. Like it or not, the Big12 is Texas and everybody else. Texas only cares about Texas.

The only way Texas says yes at this point is because the LHN has been nothing, but an utter failure in everything except for making Texas money.

 

[Exit 4]

The only way Texas says yes at this point is because the LHN has been nothing, but an utter failure in everything except for making Texas money.

Right, ESPN and others have to make the case to UT that adding teams now will strengthen their own media position when the LHN deal expires. Short of that, I think expansion for the B12 is dead.

 

[DoctorWho85]

Right, ESPN and others have to make the case to UT that adding teams now will strengthen their own media position when the LHN deal expires. Short of that, I think expansion for the B12 is dead.

I think the only way expansion happens now (assuming Texas says yes), is if the new 2-4 members they add are going to be dealt a short hand until the new TV deal is done. But hey 5-10 million is more sustainable than 2 million.

 

[Exit 4]

I think the only way expansion happens now (assuming Texas says yes), is if the new 2-4 members they add are going to be dealt a short hand until the new TV deal is done. But hey 5-10 million is more sustainable than 2 million.

Yes, a slow phase in for the newbies with the extra to the existing members will also be fundamental to any expansion deal. However, just my gut here, but it seems to me UT won't consider any expansion candidates at this time under any circumstances. They want to hold these slots for any chance of an ACC implosion, no matter how low the odds.

 

[Kolumbo]

Diversification. UConn is the key.

 

[primus74]

I love how P&W Stadiums capacity of 40,000 is always seen as a negative, but 40,000 seat stadiums are a positive for other schools.

 

[DoctorWho85]

Yes, a slow phase in for the newbies with the extra to the existing members will also be fundamental to any expansion deal. However, just my gut here, but it seems to me UT won't consider any expansion candidates at this time under any circumstances. They want to hold these slots for any chance of an ACC implosion, no matter how low the odds.

The Big XII will implode way before the ACC. It's basically Texas +9 right now and that is only going to be sustainable until the B1G decides it wants to expand. Kansas and Oklahoma would probably be prime targets in that expansion which sucks for us.

 

[Fishy]

The Big XII will implode way before the ACC. It's basically Texas +9 right now and that is only going to be sustainable until the B1G decides it wants to expand. Kansas and Oklahoma would probably be prime targets in that expansion which sucks for us.

Again, why would Kansas be a prime target?

They're in Kansas. They're bad at football.

Someone is going to dedicate $50M a year to that?

Not likely.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Again, why would Kansas be a prime target?

They're in Kansas. They're bad at football.

Someone is going to dedicate $50M a year to that?

Not likely.

I don't see how OK is a B1G target either for the same reason.... they are in fkin Norman, OK.

Yes, they may be a national football brand but the B1G already has national brands. Adding Ok isn't going to make ESPN & FOX pony up more cash.

There are only 3 potential adds, IMO, that move the revenue needle enough for the B1G to be interested. Those would be Texas, UNC & UVA. If the B1G has to take OK in order to get Texas they would likely agree but otherwise OK needs to be looking for a new home just like the other B12 schools not named Texas

 

[Drew]

I don't see how OK is a B1G target either for the same reason.... they are in fkin Norman, OK.

Yes, they may be a national football brand but the B1G already has national brands. Adding Ok isn't going to make ESPN & FOX pony up more cash.

There are only 3 potential adds, IMO, that move the revenue needle enough for the B1G to be interested. Those would be Texas, UNC & UVA. If the B1G has to take OK in order to get Texas they would likely agree but otherwise OK needs to be looking for a new home just like the other B12 schools not named Texas

same reason Nebraska was added. Football national power. Oklahoma is 8th all time in football wins. You add them regardless for this reason

 

[bobbyinaz]

same reason Nebraska was added. Football national power. Oklahoma is 8th all time in football wins. You add them regardless for this reason

Nebraska was added when the CR world was in a different time & place. The B1G doesn't need to add "brand names" to the conference.

The ONLY thing that matters to the B1G (and the SEC) is what revenues can be generated by a potential target. In today's climate it is doubtful that the B1G would add Nebraska because the dollars don't add up. Nebraska is actually lucky they found a home 5 years ago. Otherwise, they would still be in the B12, would still be UT's bitch, and would most likely be looking for a home when the B12 implodes just like Kansas, OK ST etc.

 

[Exit 4]

Nebraska was added when the CR world was in a different time & place. The B1G doesn't need to add "brand names" to the conference.

The ONLY thing that matters to the B1G (and the SEC) is what revenues can be generated by a potential target. In today's climate it is doubtful that the B1G would add Nebraska because the dollars don't add up. Nebraska is actually lucky they found a home 5 years ago. Otherwise, they would still be in the B12, would still be UT's bitch, and would most likely be looking for a home when the B12 implodes just like Kansas, OK ST etc.

Totally agree. The new B1G contract is a game changer that kills off the notion that anything but cable box/market potential matters. The reason is simple, ever add has to be revenue neutral to the league at a minimum and in the long run, add to the league. Very few schools can do that. Basically, its UT, UNC, UVA (stretch) and FSU. Maybe there are a couple more, but its doubtful there metrics do anything more than get close, but fall short. The only back door is if in the future we get a total breakdown of the cable revenue stream bringing the B1G contract back to earth....that is a scenario too far out to discuss with too many what-ifs.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Totally agree. The new B1G contract is a game changer that kills off the notion that anything but cable box/market potential matters. The reason is simple, ever add has to be revenue neutral to the league at a minimum and in the long run, add to the league. Very few schools can do that. Basically, its UT, UNC, UVA (stretch) and FSU. Maybe there are a couple more, but its doubtful there metrics do anything more than get close, but fall short. The only back door is if in the future we get a total breakdown of the cable revenue stream bringing the B1G contract back to earth....that is a scenario too far out to discuss with too many what-ifs.

The only problem with rooting for the cable model to explode is that if it affects the B1G it affects everyone. The B1G & SEC will still be the big winners in whatever new broadcast rights model there is whether it's cable, streaming or some new invention that a 15 year old kid is working on today.

The B1G and SEC will still have the ability to be selective in who they want to add. Schools like you mentioned will still be the primary targets as they will hold the key to additional revenues

 

[Exit 4]

The only problem with rooting for the cable model to explode is that if it affects the B1G it affects everyone. The B1G & SEC will still be the big winners in whatever new broadcast rights model there is whether it's cable, streaming or some new invention that a 15 year old kid is working on today.

The B1G and SEC will still have the ability to be selective in who they want to add. Schools like you mentioned will still be the primary targets as they will hold the key to additional revenues

Agreed. However, maybe in that chaos we find certain markets like the northeast consume more subscription sports (net based platforms) than anticipated...so our metrics improve compared to other markets (or we could find they worsen - oh no). Maybe we find one of eventual big 4 conferences wants a NY presence and takes us anyway. As we morph in the decades ahead to a P4 model, we have to hope that the SEC or some other group decides NY elevates their conference profile w/o dragging down their revenue model. A tall task....that might get easier if the B1G cable model melts.

 

[CL82]

The B1G tv deal is CR#1 at work. Yet another paradigm shift that screws us. The only possible upside is if the stratification of big time athletics to the Power 2 (P2 -B1G and SEC) and Middling 3 let's call them the M3 -ACC, PAC12 Big 12) results in some M3 looking to join the P2. Under those circumstances UConn is well postioned to be a seat filler.

 

[CTMike]

The only shred of hope I can think of is Rutgers. They still took Rutgers, knowing this day would come.

I also think there is some measure of value in having an easy to reach location in southern New England that B1G alumni can easily get to and enjoy B1G football a la the Michigan game.

But I'm reaching.

 

[whaler11]

I don't see how OK is a B1G target either for the same reason.... they are in fkin Norman, OK.

Yes, they may be a national football brand but the B1G already has national brands. Adding Ok isn't going to make ESPN & FOX pony up more cash.

There are only 3 potential adds, IMO, that move the revenue needle enough for the B1G to be interested. Those would be Texas, UNC & UVA. If the B1G has to take OK in order to get Texas they would likely agree but otherwise OK needs to be looking for a new home just like the other B12 schools not named Texas

You'd think it would be obvious why Oklahoma makes so much noise.

If Oklahoma had someplace to go... they would go.

Since they don't they rage against the dying light.

 

[bobbyinaz]

You'd think it would be obvious why Oklahoma makes so much noise.

If Oklahoma had someplace to go... they would go.

Since they don't they rage against the dying light.

Exactly. The only hope Boren had was trying to rally the troops into thinking they could finally push back on UT by jamming a B12N down their throats. He was able to sell the nation on the fact that UT was the bad guy because they didn't want to give up the LHN.

Then he found out that there was no interest from ANYONE in paying for a network and all of a sudden he sat down & shut his mouth. Now he gets to sit & wait like everyone else hoping that he can find a home in 4-6 years