~60% of the way through the season

[Dabutlerdidit]

Just a quick comparison to back up Matrim's point.

UConn, last year at this time (11-9) in all these but NET (which didn't exist)

Sagarin: 108
KenPom: 151

I couldn't get the WayBack to give the right date from BPI or Massey. Closest I could get was 2/13.

BPI: 170
Massey: 128

The record at this point is only 1 game better, but the fundamentals at roughly the same time suggest a pretty large improvement.

108 in Sagarin right now is DePaul
151 in KemPom is UC Santa Barbara
170 in BPI is Louisiana
128 in Massey is also UC Santa Barbara

We've made strides from last year, but we certainly have a way to go.

So do we become a bubble team once we crack into Net rank of 68 or better?

 

[tzznandrew]

That’s false. Say the finish at 19-12. They’d be right there on the bubble

I mean, I'd like to think that, but who would they have beaten in this? Cincy and Houston at home, UCF on the road. Throw in the Syracuse win, and maybe you can squint enough to get there. But it is quite unlikely that (a) they finish 19-12 and (b) that record gets them there.

 

[AntG168]

I mean, I'd like to think that, but who would they have beaten in this? Cincy and Houston at home, UCF on the road. Throw in the Syracuse win, and maybe you can squint enough to get there. But it is quite unlikely that (a) they finish 19-12 and (b) that record gets them there.

That’s correct, idk if it “gets them there”. But we’d be in the discussion

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

That’s false. Say the finish at 19-12. They’d be right there on the bubble

Depends who we get those 7 wins vs. We have quadrant A win and no quadrant B wins. Finish the regular season at 19-12 and win two AACT games maybe

 

[intlzncster]

Moved ahead of Providence and Temple in KenPom

Baby steps baby. I'll take it.

 

[intlzncster]

That’s false. Say the finish at 19-12. They’d be right there on the bubble

I guess it depends just how big of a 'bubble' you're looking at. That's an outside looking in team for sure. This ain't the ACC/B1G we're talking about here. Gotta have at least 22w in the American imo.

 

[tzznandrew]

I guess it depends just how big of a 'bubble' you're looking at. That's an outside looking in team for sure. This ain't the ACC/B1G we're talking about here. Gotta have at least 22w in the American imo.

Or a number of very good OOC wins. This team had chances, but whiffed on all of them but Syracuse. That's going to be a deciding factor on an at-large bid.

 

[whaler11]

I feel like we have to point this out every time this discussion comes up.

UConn is better. The league top to bottom is the same.

It’s literally the same every year. It’s like sunrise and sunset.

 

[Slasher]

WSU, Cincy & Tulsa were better last year.

Houston, Memphis, UCF, Temple, UConn are better this year I think.

Let's see where the conference is in March but I think the depth of the AAC is better this year.

USF is a hell of a lot better too.

 

[intlzncster]

Or a number of very good OOC wins. This team had chances, but whiffed on all of them but Syracuse. That's going to be a deciding factor on an at-large bid.

Very true. How was our actual OOC strength of schedule this year? idk the actual number, but if you asked me, I'd say offhand that it wasn't that great anyway.

Regardless, having to play an unbalanced schedule every year because of the conference is infuriating.

 

[tzznandrew]

Very true. How was our actual OOC strength of schedule this year? idk the actual number, but if you asked me, I'd say offhand that it wasn't that great anyway.

Pretty bad.

I don't know if NET gives one, KenPom has us at:

SOS: 191
NCSOS: 312

Last year, on this exact date, it was:

SOS: 43
NCSOS: 34

So, yeah, that's going to be a huge drag on an at large bid.

 

[HawkHusky]

This may be the softest bubble in the history of the tourney. 20 wins would get us in the discussion. Granted, we'd probably end up being a high NIT seed.

 

[Storrs South]

Pretty bad.

I don't know if NET gives one, KenPom has us at:

SOS: 191
NCSOS: 312

Last year, on this exact date, it was:

SOS: 43
NCSOS: 34

So, yeah, that's going to be a huge drag on an at large bid.

Thanks KO. The number of cupcakes and how "cupcakey" i.e. extremely bad these cupcake teams are hurts big time. UConn should never be playing any teams +300 on KenPom and yet this team played Manhattan and New Hampshire along with Lafayette all the way back at 294.

I know you can't predict how this plays out but you have a sense directionally of where a team is going to end up and having that many of them is just awful and can't be completely counteracted even by playing Cuse, FSU, Iowa, Nova, and Arizona (oh and Tulane in conference at 299 doesn't help either).

It's also just bad for attendance and doesn't help at all come tournament time. I know Hurley will fix this, but it is annoying at this point. Tomorrow is also the first day KenPom doesn't rely on any preseason analytics so let's see if that shakes the number up at all since UConn was KenPom 171 last year.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Depends who we get those 7 wins vs. We have quadrant A win and no quadrant B wins. Finish the regular season at 19-12 and win two AACT games maybe

Looking at the schedule we will likely be favored in 6 games. That would be 18, with a shot at more in the tournament. I do think it is possible to upset Temple and Memphis on the road, and maybe UCF. Beating Houston at home will probably be our toughest game.

So they could pull off 20 wins, or blow a few and end up with 16. I think an NIT big would be great experience for those guys.

 

[Slasher]

Pretty bad.

I don't know if NET gives one, KenPom has us at:

SOS: 191
NCSOS: 312

Last year, on this exact date, it was:

SOS: 43
NCSOS: 34

So, yeah, that's going to be a huge drag on an at large bid.

NET does have SOS on their details sheet. Right now it's:

SOS: 110
NC SOS: 203