#1 vs #2

[oldude]

On Wednesday there's a game we have all been waiting for; and what could be better then the two best teams in the nation, with the two best coaches and both teams coming into the game undefeated? I am interested in how BY'ers, and any wandering ND fans, evaluate the relative strengths & weaknesses of each team. IMO, here are the relative strengths of each team:

Notre Dame

1. Experience
2. Depth
3. Size
   
4. Rebounding
5. Home Court

UConn

1. Strength of Schedule
2. Defense
3. Team speed/quickness
4. Toughness
   
5. Coaching

I am sure that others may disagree and have a number of additional thoughts, particularly when it comes to individual player match-ups.

I do have one minor concern. I sincerely hope that when the polls come out this week, prior to the game, ND remains at #1 and UConn remains at #2. Hope to see the polls change after the game.

 

[Gus Mahler]

To return to a short discussion on a previous thread, I wonder if today's game changes anything in Geno's mind regarding who starts or plays a lot of minutes (beyond, obviously, game situations).

I wonder if, after today, he will consider starting Nat so Gabby can guard someone on the perimeter. If you put Kia on Allen, you might profit from cutting off the head. That leaves the issue of Arike O. Gabby could handle her quickness-wise and strength-wise, but as I think @CocoHusky suggested, you risk foul trouble on Gabby. Or should you go into the game fearing for foul trouble?

Yes, I know there will be a lot of switching, but I'd like to hear thoughts on who is the best primary defender of whom.

 

[bags27]

UConn is really, really tough; but so is Notre Dame. And UConn has great coaching and better than Notre Dame's. But maybe not by all that much. OTOH, I think UConn actually has more experience--in big games at least--and since its schedule is a lot tougher this year, that really counts more for experience, I think.

Gus, if Natalie starts, who doesn't? Do you start super big with Kia at the 1 and Lou at the 2, or do you bring Lou or Gabby in later?

 

[Minicoop69]

Its going to be a great game. I am glad I'll be there. It will be tough for UConn to pull this off, but if they do. watch out!

 

[huskyd]

To return to a short discussion on a previous thread, I wonder if today's game changes anything in Geno's mind regarding who starts or plays a lot of minutes (beyond, obviously, game situations).

I wonder if, after today, he will consider starting Nat so Gabby can guard someone on the perimeter. If you put Kia on Allen, you might profit from cutting off the head. That leaves the issue of Arike O. Gabby could handle her quickness-wise and strength-wise, but as I think @CocoHusky suggested, you risk foul trouble on Gabby. Or should you go into the game fearing for foul trouble?

Yes, I know there will be a lot of switching, but I'd like to hear thoughts on who is the best primary defender of whom.

Gus, you saw Texas win the first quarter; then Geno looked things over and made a few changes. The problem was clearly in the paint, Coach inserted Butler. UConn did better in quarter #2. Whom did Geno start at the beginning of the second half? Same folks who started the game. That's how he operates. He waits to see how well his starters are doing--much longer, I think, than other coaches. He wants the main players to sort things out for themselves, especially if they're not doing very well. Can I count on this group down the line? Every year it seems he's on a quest to find his Final Five for March; once he does, he'll stick with them. So, Gus, my conclusion is that vs. ND you'll see the starting five (for now) open the game. Of course . . .

 

[StephStorrs]

To return to a short discussion on a previous thread, I wonder if today's game changes anything in Geno's mind regarding who starts or plays a lot of minutes (beyond, obviously, game situations).

I wonder if, after today, he will consider starting Nat so Gabby can guard someone on the perimeter. If you put Kia on Allen, you might profit from cutting off the head. That leaves the issue of Arike O. Gabby could handle her quickness-wise and strength-wise, but as I think @CocoHusky suggested, you risk foul trouble on Gabby. Or should you go into the game fearing for foul trouble?

Yes, I know there will be a lot of switching, but I'd like to hear thoughts on who is the best primary defender of whom.

I haven't followed ND religiously this year just due to time constraints, but playing in South Bend... I fully believe you should go into the game anticipating foul trouble at some point. It would genuinely surprise me if there wasn't foul trouble with someone at some point, with my main concerns being Gabby and Napheesa - though I wouldn't count Kia out for foul trouble either, though I'd say from what we've seen so far that if we're having to bet on foul trouble, it's likely coming from Gabby.

This isn't an advantage on talent or anything, but I think the team's fire and passion could give us an edge. Someone at the game today said in passing that they've all gotten a taste of what it feels to be NC winners and that right now, they probably want to see what it feels like to really win one on their own. (Think what Geno said about the Baylor game - how they never felt that way before because last year, it wasn't their win, it was the Big 3's.) It's way to early to be thinking about March and beyond, but these girls are also human. I think there's a lot of grit, passion, and drive that sets this team apart.

That being said... you could probably say the same for ND. No one wants to be #1 in the country and lose at home, especially when UConn's walked away with the last contests. I wouldn't doubt their fire and drive either, although I don't think we've seen their full potential on that front this year.

Almost feels like this game is going to come down to who wants it more...

 

[oldude]

To return to a short discussion on a previous thread, I wonder if today's game changes anything in Geno's mind regarding who starts or plays a lot of minutes (beyond, obviously, game situations).

I wonder if, after today, he will consider starting Nat so Gabby can guard someone on the perimeter. If you put Kia on Allen, you might profit from cutting off the head. That leaves the issue of Arike O. Gabby could handle her quickness-wise and strength-wise, but as I think @CocoHusky suggested, you risk foul trouble on Gabby. Or should you go into the game fearing for foul trouble?

Yes, I know there will be a lot of switching, but I'd like to hear thoughts on who is the best primary defender of whom.

Really interesting idea. I like it but worry some about Nat on switches,. On the other hand, ND has 3 match-up challenges: Arike O, Allen & Turner. If you put Nat on Westbeld, Gabby on Arike O, Kia on Allen, Pheeze on Turner and Lou on Mabry that works pretty well. Not sure exactly what happens once teams start bringing in players off the bench, but based on tonight's game, I am sure Geno will consider it for ND.

 

[Gus Mahler]

Really interesting idea. I like it but worry some about Nat on switches,. On the other hand, ND has 3 match-up challenges: Arike O, Allen & Turner. If you put Nat on Westbeld, Gabby on Arike O, Kia on Allen, Pheeze on Turner and Lou on Mabry that works pretty well. Not sure exactly what happens once teams start bringing in players off the bench, but based on tonight's game, I am sure Geno will consider it for ND.

Your scheme makes good sense to me. Of course then there are only two guards to bring in off the bench. But we knew we would have this problem this year.

 

[Gus Mahler]

UConn is really, really tough; but so is Notre Dame. And UConn has great coaching and better than Notre Dame's. But maybe not by all that much. OTOH, I think UConn actually has more experience--in big games at least--and since its schedule is a lot tougher this year, that really counts more for experience, I think.

Gus, if Natalie starts, who doesn't? Do you start super big with Kia at the 1 and Lou at the 2, or do you bring Lou or Gabby in later?

Saniya. Yes, I'm a big supporter of her, but I don't see her being effective against either Allen or Arike O.

 

[alexrgct]

Is Uconn as shaky as the Huskies' narrow victory over Florida State?

Conversely, is ND as shaky as its narrow victory over Green Bay...at home no less?

We will find out Wednesday...

 

[oldude]

Your scheme makes good sense to me. Of course then there are only two guards to bring in off the bench. But we knew we would have this problem this year.

After reading your post I had to go back and check. Tonight, Gabby & Pheeze played 39 minutes each and Kia played 38. None of them came off the court for a single minute until the game was decided. Nat was next with 26 then Lou with 25 (due to foul trouble). Yet with UConn's "Iron Women" playing as many minutes as they did, it was Texas that ran out of gas in the 4th qtr.

 

[Gus Mahler]

After reading your post I had to go back and check. Tonight, Gabby & Pheeze played 39 minutes each and Kia played 38. None of them came off the court for a single minute until the game was decided. Nat was next with 26 then Lou with 25 (due to foul trouble). Yet with UConn's "Iron Women" playing as many minutes as they did, it was Texas that ran out of gas in the 4th qtr.

What I was getting at but didn't say well was that there would be no other options except guards. No bigs in other words.

Or Megan Walker on the wing.

 

[UcMiami]

Posted this in the 82 thread, but realized it really belonged here - sorry for the double posting:

Some really fun stats for games involving number 1 and number 2 seeds:
Uconn has played in 22 such games dating back to their first the 1995 game at Gampel involving TN as the #1 ranked team. (Uconn won)
Uconn's overall record in these games is 19 wins and 3 losses - by far the best record - the next best is La Tech at 9-4 (the last of which was into 1997-8 season involving TN)
Playing as the #1 ranked team they are 15-2 - and haven't lost since 2001.
Playing as the #2 ranked team they still hold a 4-1 record.
The last loss was to #1 Baylor in Waco in 2011 - their only loss as the #2 ranked team.
Prior to that you have to go back to 2001 to #2 ND in the FF
And the other loss - #2 TN at Gampel in 1999 - the Boo game I believe.

In Dec. 2013 Uconn played in the 52nd of these games (against #2 Duke - Uconn won 83-61 ) and since then Uconn has played five more of these games and won them all and I don't believe anyone else has played any. If that is correct thEn in history there have been 57 total and the record for the #1 seed is 36 - 21 (so rankings do pretty well.)
But ... if you drop out Uconn's record as a #1 ranked team from those it gets sort of interesting - 36 -21 becomes 21 - 19 or almost a toss up! For all #1 ranked teams without Uconn on their chest playing #2 ranked teams based on this history, they have a 52.5 % chance of winning. And of course Uconn playing as the #2 ranked team based on history has a 80% chance of winning!

As they say in the investment industry: 'Past performance is no guarantee of future results', or 'Buyer beware'

 

[Buzzyboy]

After reading your post I had to go back and check. Tonight, Gabby & Pheeze played 39 minutes each and Kia played 38. None of them came off the court for a single minute until the game was decided. Nat was next with 26 then Lou with 25 (due to foul trouble). Yet with UConn's "Iron Women" playing as many minutes as they did, it was Texas that ran out of gas in the 4th qtr.

It seems that one of the big strengths of UConn is their endurance and conditioning. Even playing excessive minutes, they seem to be able to play at a high level, more so than their opponents.

 

[oldude]

It seems that one of the big strengths of UConn is their endurance and conditioning. Even playing excessive minutes, they seem to be able to play at a high level, more so than their opponents.

The Marine Corps training before the season. All the suicides they run during practice. I am sure the players dread the intense conditioning. But when you're running circles around the other team in the 4th qtr, it's a beautiful thing.....

 

[Sonny44]

Like a former wrestling coach once told his team: "No wrestler of mine is going to lose a match because of fatigue in the third period."

 

[Wbbfan1]

Geno keeps the starting lineup the same. If its not broken, don't fix it. Saniya starts and if she's not involved in the offense from the start, he subs in Crystal earlier. Saniya is the better defensive player, but Crystal runs the offense better. Saniya probably plays major minutes against ND as they'll need her defensive pressure.

 

[oldude]

Geno keeps the starting lineup the same. If its not broken, don't fix it. Saniya starts and if she's not involved in the offense from the start, he subs in Crystal earlier. Saniya is the better defensive player, but Crystal runs the offense better. Saniya probably plays major minutes against ND as they'll need her defensive pressure.

I agree that Saniya continues to start, for now, but I also believe that the lineup is not static. I see two possible changes to the starting lineup.

Many of us have suggested that Danger will eventually start over Saniya. Her concussion and missed practice time set her back some, but I do believe that Danger will be back pushing Saniya for the starting role this season.

The other option, which I had never considered prior to yesterday's game, is to move Nat into the starting lineup. While Nat has improved over last year, sometimes she looks awkward on the court. At the same time, Nat can body up other teams posts, thereby freeing up Gabby & Pheesa to play defense out on the floor, where their length and athleticism are lethal. Nat is tough and physical, and as I have indicated before, she is Geno's enforcer/Luca Brasi.

 

[huskeynut]

Is Uconn as shaky as the Huskies' narrow victory over Florida State?

Conversely, is ND as shaky as its narrow victory over Green Bay...at home no less?

We will find out Wednesday...

Not sure I agree with this Alex.

I think UConn has shown that it is not as shaky with the wins over Baylor and Texas. Both Baylor and Texas are big, physical teams yet both lost by double digits. Natalie is giving quality minutes against big posts freeing up Napheesa and Gabby. Crystal has shown she belongs.

As to ND, I really don't know. They certainly have not played the tough schedule that UConn has. Is that a difference maker? Is home court an advantage for ND? I don't know.

I am going to give the coaching edge to Geno. And that is not a knock on Muffet. She's probbly the second best coach in WCBB.

I will agree that we'll find out Wednesday night. Looking forward to a great game.

 

[bizarro aj]

ND is missing the one thing that would help them beat Uconn and thats Diggins who is long gone. There is no one on the current team that knows what it's like to beat the huskies. Their diet of cupcakes Is going to hurt them against uconn.

 

[CocoHusky]

Really interesting idea. I like it but worry some about Nat on switches,.

There is a couple ways to eliminate this. 1) Don't have Natalie switch. Turner is not going to stray far from the basket, her game is not pick and pop and ND guards are better at catch and shot vs. shooting off the dribble, so if Turner is setting high ball screens then have the perimeter UCONN defenders all go over the screen in trail.
2) Go 3: 2 Straight up or matchup zone. Nat and KLS at the base, Gabby, Kia & Napheesa wrecking havoc on the perimeter.
As far as rotations Crystal has to get better defensively on the perimeter, same with Saniya. Texas exploited both yesterday.
Gabby & Napheesa need to get about 10 Minutes replacing KLS and Nat and we will need 10 solid minutes from Molly as a perimeter defender.

 

[UcMiami]

Geno keeps the starting lineup the same. If its not broken, don't fix it. Saniya starts and if she's not involved in the offense from the start, he subs in Crystal earlier. Saniya is the better defensive player, but Crystal runs the offense better. Saniya probably plays major minutes against ND as they'll need her defensive pressure.

Interesting to me was that after the first half, Geno substituted Natalie for Chong rather than Crystal - the standard second half line-up was Butler, Collier, Williams, Samuelson, and Nurse

 

[huskyd]

Predictions + Vocabulary

Mr. Wizard, who predicted the current Ice Age nearly 20 years ago, is ready to turn his knowledge to the matter of bb predictions. He has added some good words to know.

Word #1: Syllogism: an irrefutable system of logic, to wit:

Whenever Kia Nurse starts, the Huskies win;
Kia Nurse starts Wednesday;
UConn wins Wednesday.

Word #2: Talisman: a good-luck charm, to wit:
Kia Nurse.

 

[JoePgh]

Particularly in comparison with the teams from the Lone Star State, I don't see that Notre Dame has any particular size advantage on UConn. Turner is 6-3 and almost exclusively an inside player. I think Napheesa can match up with her quite adequately, and they will both draw fouls on each other, hopefully in equal measure.

ND is primarily a perimeter team, just like UConn. They are almost mirror images of each other. It will be a question of who can play the run-and-shoot game best. Although Ogunbuwale and Jackie Young are talented, I would tend to think that Kia / Gabby / Lou have an experience advantage. I also think that Geno will come up with a better defensive scheme than Muffitt -- defense has never been a strong point of ND teams.

Who does ND have who can defend Lou? They can't take Turner out from under the basket, or Napheesa will kill them and they will never get a rebound. They don't have anyone else with the size and speed to guard Lou all over the floor, especially if she plays like she did in the second half against Texas.

So unless Lou picks Wednesday evening to have her 2-for-9 game, she should have a big night like she did against LSU.

 

[UcMiami]

I agree that Saniya continues to start, for now, but I also believe that the lineup is not static. I see two possible changes to the starting lineup.

Many of us have suggested that Danger will eventually start over Saniya. Her concussion and missed practice time set her back some, but I do believe that Danger will be back pushing Saniya for the starting role this season.

The other option, which I had never considered prior to yesterday's game, is to move Nat into the starting lineup. While Nat has improved over last year, sometimes she looks awkward on the court. At the same time, Nat can body up other teams posts, thereby freeing up Gabby & Pheesa to play defense out on the floor, where their length and athleticism are lethal. Nat is tough and physical, and as I have indicated before, she is Geno's enforcer/Luca Brasi.

I think the current line-up will remain for the season - while it may not be the 'best' lineup it gives Geno the most options of altering the team as needed each night. Out of necessity this year he is betting on speed, quickness, and versatility over height - he has lots of the former and very little of the later. And he is hoping that the other team has to blink first in games and counter his lineup rather than steamroll it like TX did last night. And Chong, while not as aggressive/dynamic as people want, is also going to give him pretty decent straight up defense and mistake free offense - think Maria Conlon. Uconn had I think six turnovers in the first quarter last night and Chong had none and her defensive assignment was not getting past her into the lane.

And when he wants a change he has two options off the bench - when he needs to reinforce the lane because speed and quickness is losing to height he has Natalie, and when the three 'dynamic' offensive players in the starting lineup (Lou, Napheesa, and Gabby) are not dynamic enough he can bring in Dangerfield.

I think the current starting lineup gives him the best/most accurate 'read' of the balance of the team on a given night against a specific opponent - Crystal starting as a freshman creates a level of uncertainty because she isn't going to be as consistent as Chong though she might be better - think Doty/Hartley - that wasn't because of 'deference to a senior' it was that Doty was simply more consistent and Geno could read the temperature quicker with her starting.